[情報] Sporting News 2009 Astros preview
Houston Astros preview
The Astros quietly posted the N.L.'s best record (42-24) after the All-Star
break last season, but did little in the offseason to improve their chances of
building on that momentum. The rotation, in particular, is shaky after No. 1
starter Roy Oswalt.
THREE QUESTIONS
1. Can they win before July 4?
In 2005, the Astros were so bad in June that the Houston Chronicle buried their
season with a full-page tombstone. But the Astros stormed all the way to the
World Series. Slow starts have become as common in Houston as the heat in the
summer. Since 2005, the Astros are a combined 20 games under .500 before the
All-Star break and 33 over .500 after the break. Why? "Who knows?" right
fielder Hunter Pence said. "I just know everything seems to click in the second
half. To keep grinding like we have shows our character, but we need to step up
in the first half like that." So far this spring, however, Houston has been
playing down to form. Manager Cecil Cooper took the unusual step of calling a
clubhouse meeting in the second week of spring training to address
lackadaisical play after the team lost six of its first seven exhibitions. "We
need to do things the proper way and it should start right now, not two weeks
from now," Cooper said.
2. What about the pitching?
Roy Oswalt is a bona fide No. 1 starter. He eats innings, stops losing streaks
and gives the Astros a chance to win every five days. But after him, the
rotation is full of questions. Can lefthander Mike Hampton stay healthy? He
left spring training early because of a heart murmur but is on track to be in
the rotation. Of course, the same was true this time last season when he was
with Atlanta. Wandy Rodriguez had his best season in 2008, but he strained an
oblique early this spring (he should be ready by opening day). Brian Moehler
and Brandon Backe are penciled in for the Nos. 4 and 5 spots, but neither can
be counted for double-figure victories. Well-traveled Russ Ortiz is making a
bid to make the club but has a 6.35 ERA this spring.
3. What can Lance Berkman do for an encore?
With the long sideburns he sports in the spring and his less-than-slender
frame, Berkman lives up to his "Fat Elvis" nickname. Looks can be deceiving.
The Astros' first baseman is one of the game's best switch hitters, and is
coming off a season during which he hit .312 with 29 homers and 106 RBIs. This
spring, he is adding another aspect to his game: team leader. "He is embracing
the idea," Cooper said. "In (team) stretching, I hear him say, 'Let's get going
guys.' He's taking extra work and working hard on his defense. He's asking for
more work on short-hop grounders just because he wants to get better. It's nice
to see."
PROJECTED LINEUP
1. 2B Kazuo Matsui.
When healthy, provides good speed (20 SBs) but just a so-so OBP (.354).
2. RF Hunter Pence.
Good power (25 HRs) but slipped elsewhere offensively in second season.
3. 1B Lance Berkman.
Coming off another strong season: career-high 114 runs and .987 OPS.
4. LF Carlos Lee.
Had 28 homers, 100 RBIs in just 115 games before broken
finger ended his '08 season.
5. SS Miguel Tejada.
Drop in production can be blamed on .237 BA with RISP.
6. 3B Geoff Blum.
Had a career-high 14 homers (but .287 OBP) in 325 at-bats in '08.
7. CF Michael Bourn.
Ideal leadoff man (41 steals) if he could get on base (.288 OBP).
8. C Humberto Quintero.
Better suited for backup/platoon role.
PROJECTED ROTATION
1. RHP Roy Oswalt.
Highest ERA (3.54) of his career in '08,
but went 9-2 with 1.96 ERA in final two months.
2. LHP Mike Hampton.
His 13 appearances (4.85 ERA) last season were his first since 2005.
3. LHP Wandy Rodriguez.
His 3.54 ERA in '08 was career-best by more than a run.
4. RHP Brian Moehler.
Most contenders' rotations don't feature a 37-year-old with 4.73 career ERA.
5. RHP Brandon Backe.
His 6.05 ERA, 36 HRs allowed were worst among N.L. starters.
PROJECTED CLOSER
RHP Jose Valverde.
Led the N.L. with 44 saves led N.L., but allowed 10 HRs.
GRADES
Offense: C. Houston finished in the bottom half of the N.L. in runs, on-base
percentage and slugging in 2008, and it added no impact players in the
offseason. Because Tejada isn't what he once was, Berkman and Lee have a heavy
load to shoulder.
Pitching: C. Without Oswalt, Houston would have the weakest rotation in the
division, even if Rodriguez and Hampton stayed healthy (far from a safe bet).
The bullpen is solid with Geoff Geary, Doug Brocail and LaTroy Hawkins setting
up Valverde, but it needs to reduce the homers allowed (MLB-high 70 last
season).
Bench: C. Aaron Boone, expected to platoon at third, and fourth outfielder
Darin Erstad bring experience and leadership, but their best days are behind
them. Blum also is the club's most versatile infielder. Fifth outfielder Jason
Michaels drove in 53 runs in 286 at-bats in 2008.
Manager: C. A full season of experience will help Cooper after a commendable
rookie season. He is a players' manager who still is learning how to balance
all of his responsibilities. He seems to be a quick learner, as evidenced by
the Astros' strong second-half showing.
Sporting News prediction: The Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers are better than the
Astros, and the Reds also should pass them by this season.
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