Re: [討論] 其實我不太懂「柯有負面外溢」是從哪來的消失
柯的負面外溢效應分為兩類選民的投票決策:
1.深綠不投票
柯的兩岸主張與兩蔣評價引發深綠的不滿, 只要民進
黨禮讓, 全國的深綠就不出門投票給該縣市民進黨的
候選人.
2.柯粉不投票
民進黨提名台北市長候選人與柯文哲競爭, 全國的柯
粉就不出門投票給該縣市民進黨的候選人.
台北市長選舉是地方選舉, 但深綠與柯粉是遍佈全國
, 一旦因為柯文哲因素而不出門投票, 自然是負面外
溢效應, 民進黨會成最大受災戶.
所以問題就在深綠與柯粉, 誰的投票決策對民進黨是
利大於弊, 將是該不該禮讓的考量點. 整體來看, 禮
讓是最佳抉擇.
1.深綠本來就支持民進黨, 對禮讓的反彈會隨時間淡
化. 但是不禮讓, 等於要與柯競爭, 柯粉的反彈會一
直到選舉結束. 勞基法已得罪柯粉(等於年輕人), 不
禮讓無異雪上加霜, 禮讓反而有機會修補雙方關係.
2.三組人馬競選, 柯固然有機會當選, 但國民黨的機
會也不低, 因為民進黨若不禮讓, 必然推較強的人選
, 對柯的綠票造成破壞力. 國民黨籍當選市長, 對民
進黨籍的總統連任將造成衝擊. 而柯更有可能學扁市
長落選去選總統.
3.蘇煥智將退黨參選, 這讓台北市的深綠選民有發洩
的管道了, 民進黨不用參一腳.
禮不禮讓, 民進黨都受傷, 但禮讓受傷的程度較低.
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討論串 (同標題文章)
完整討論串 (本文為第 12 之 22 篇):