Fw: [外電] 防守底線三分的重要性
※ [本文轉錄自 NBA 看板 #1FTJSPc- ]
作者: eertllams (Tree666) 看板: NBA
標題: Fw: [外電] 防守底線三分的重要性
時間: Fri Mar 30 12:31:20 2012
Why corner threes matter for defenses
http://tinyurl.com/7ant43u
It has become accepted among NBA geeks that the hierarchy of the “best”
shots, from most efficient to least, goes something like this:
被大部分的NBA鍵盤專家認同 最有效率的出手依序為
1. Dunks/layups
1. 灌籃 上籃
2. Free throws
2. 罰球
3. Corner three-pointers
3. 底線三分
4. Other three-pointers
4. 其他三分出手
5. Mid-range shots
5. 中距離投籃
Teams last season shot 39 percent on corner threes, which is about the same
percentage teams shoot overall on two-pointers outside the restricted area.
Teams last season shot about 35.5 percent on all three-pointers, meaning they
shot something like 33.5 percent to 34 percent on three-pointers taken anywhere
but the corners.
上個球季全NBA底線三分的命中率是39% 這幾乎等同於扣掉衝撞區的兩分球命中率
NBA球隊上球季的三分命中率是35.5%
換句話說 扣掉底線之外的三分 其他三分命中率大概僅33-34%
In short: The corner three is a great shot, something Spurs coach Gregg
Popovich understood probably before the Internet became a thing.
簡言之: 底線三分是很好的出手
早在網路還沒盛行前 波波維奇就已經瞭解其重要性
Basketball is a game of finite possessions and close scoring margins. It
matters if a team’s defense can chase shooters off of corner threes a couple
of times per game, and limit those shooters instead to floaters or some other
shot that is a) difficult and b) counts for only two points if it goes in.
籃球比賽 就是由有限的持球 跟 得分的一些手段 組成
如果一個球隊的防守可以迫使對手減少底線三分出手
改選擇比較困難的攻擊方式 像是拋射,甚至其他困難的攻擊
就算進了 也只是兩分
Last week, I noted one reason the Clippers have ranked among the bottom 10
defensive teams this season: Opponents are shooting the lights out (about 44
percent) on corner three-pointers. The league was kind enough to send me data
on opponent corner threes for every team over the last two seasons (through
March 27), and I sent that data along to a two stats-savvy readers (Eric Maroun
and Aaron McGuire, the latter of the fantastic blog Gothic Ginobili). Those
guys then measured how strongly defending the corner three correlates with
overall defense and team winning percentage.
上週 我注意到快艇被評為本季目前防守的倒數十名
快艇的對手在底線三分可以有44%的命中率
聯盟很好心的把這兩個球季(三月27號之前)的 每一隊的底線三分的資料分享給我
我也隨後把資料寄給我倆個統計學上牛逼的讀者
他們兩位隨即分析
把底線三分防守好的球隊 跟 球隊整體防守跟勝率的 關聯性
The answers are interesting, if incomplete. A few general findings before we
get to the team level:
分析結果非常有趣 (不過分析目前還不完整)
有些我們的發現 在討論是那些球隊前 先與大家分享
‧ Limiting attempts seems to matter more than the percentage of corner threes
opponents make. That’s not surprising. Lots of studies have found that
limiting raw three-point attempts matters more than opponent three-point
percentage. The raw number of corner-three attempts allowed last season
correlated more strongly with both winning percentage and overall defensive
rating than shooting percentage on corner threes, according to work by Maroun
and McGuire. It also correlated more strongly with winning percentage than a
team’s defensive rebounding rate and the rate at which a team forced
turnovers. (In general, the correlation between defensive rebounding and
winning percentage is typically stronger than it was last season, according to
historical data.)
限制對手的(底線三分)出手數 似乎比對手的底線三分命中率 更為重要!
這不意外 我們發現
能限制對方底線三分的出手數目 跟 球隊的整體防守排名還有球隊勝利 大為相關!
根據他們的分析還發現
如果比較其他大家熟知的一些參數 (大家都理解的)
防守籃板率 或是 逼迫對方的失誤 彼此的高相關
竟然比這篇文章討論的
球隊的勝率 與 限制對手底線三分 還要低一些 ！
In general, the amount of corner threes a team allowed last season correlated
strongly with winning percentage as a few other key factors have done so in
prior years, including how often a team allows and earns free throws.
對手底線三分出手數 跟勝率有正相關之外 當然還有其他因子也會影響勝率
好比說 你多常讓對手佔上罰球線?
Last season’s Rockets (41.9 percent allowed on corner threes) and Spurs (a
league-worst 47 percent) both survived defensively in part because they ranked
second and fourth, respectively, in the number of corner-three attempts they
permitted.
上個球季火箭對手底線三分有41.9% 馬刺更讓對手有47%的高命中率(聯盟最差)
但是這兩隊的防守還是讓大家稱讚
因為以計算對手底線三分出手的話 火箭排第二 馬刺排第四
Overall last season, the average team attempted 412 corner threes. Of the 12
defenses that allowed fewer than 412 corner-three tries, nine ranked among the
league’s 15 stingiest defenses overall. That group included the Bulls and
Celtics, the league’s two best defenses. And of the 12 teams that allowed the
most corner-three attempts, only one — the Lakers — ranked better than 17th
in points allowed per possession.
上個球季 整體來說 平均的球隊底線出手三分數目為 412 次
12隻讓對手總出手少於 412 次的球隊裡
9個球隊排在防守排名的前15名!! 這包含了公牛與Celtics
而後面12隻讓對手投超過 412 次的球隊裡面
防守榜中唯一上榜的
只有湖人在讓對手的(100次出手裡)平均得分可以排到16名 (連前10都沒)
There are exceptions, obviously, and this season’s Clippers are an example of
how damaging even an average number of corner-three attempts can be if a large
chunk of them are wide-open looks. And last season, five of the league’s 10
stingiest defenses, in terms of points allowed per possession, allowed an
above-average number of attempts from the corner: the Heat, Magic, Grizzlies,
Hornets and Lakers. But four of those teams — all but the Lakers — allowed a
number of corner threes close to the league average. Yielding a lot of such
shots was generally bad.
當然也有例外
好比說這個球季的快艇隊 快艇本身沒有讓對手有很多底線三分出手數
但是 大部分出手都是大空檔 (對手底線三分命中率44%)
還是隊快艇造成很大傷害
‧ Chicago is ridiculous. The Bulls through 49 games this season had allowed
140 corner-three attempts. The Sixers, through that same stretch, had allowed
the second-fewest — 192. The gap between Chicago and Philly is the equivalent
of the gap between the Sixers and the league average for corner-three attempts
allowed. Chicago opponents are attempting just 2.85 corner threes per game; the
average team attempts about five per game.
公牛隊很扯.....本球季49場球賽 公牛只讓對手地線三分出手140次
76人隊也打了49場 讓對手出手次數排第二少 但是有192次出手
這兩隊得差距 差不多就是76人跟聯盟平均的差距
所以聯盟目前為止 平均讓對手出手底線三分224次
以平均來看 一個 球隊平均一場底線三分可以出手5次
但你是跟公牛比賽 同樣地點你只能出手2.85次
Guess who yielded the fewest corner-three attempts last season? The Bulls, with
a total of 305, or about 3.8 per game. They have shaved a full attempt off that
number this season. Tom Thibodeau is scary.
那你可以猜猜 上個球季讓對手底線三分出手最少的球隊是??
還是公牛!
記得聯盟平均是412次 82場的公牛對手 卻只能出手305次
平均只有3.8次
但是....今年公牛卻讓對手在整整在少出手一次
老席 你太可怕了!!
‧ We might be seeing the impact of coaching here in lots of cases. Rick
Adelman, for one, appears to be a huge difference-maker in terms of defending
the corner three. The Timberwolves allowed a league-high 511 corner-three
attempts — about 6.2 per game — last season under Kurt Rambis. Under Adelman,
the Wolves have allowed about 4.3 corner threes per game, the fifth-lowest
amount. They are playing at a slower pace this season, but the decline — about
three possessions per game — does not come close to explaining the drop-off in
corner threes on its own.
所以從這份數據 還可以看出教練執教的影響
去年灰狼讓對手每場可以出手6.2次 但是在換了經驗豐富的Rick Adelman之後
今年對手只能出手4.3次 算是聯盟排第五少的
This is especially so when you look at Adelman’s former team, the Rockets.
Houston last season allowed the second-fewest corner-three attempts, trailing
only the Bulls, but they’ve allowed more than average this season. In fact,
the Rockets are on pace to allow about 30 more corner three tries in this
66-game season than they did in the full 82 last season.
而且去年Adelman執教的火箭隊 是上季讓底線三分出手第二少的! （僅公牛之後）
但是今年的火箭 在Adelman走之後 對手的底線三分出手 是多於聯盟平均
換算總數 火箭的步調打完66場 對手總底線三分出手 會比去年的82場多30次
In what probably amounts to a heavy dose of good luck, the Wolves have held
opponents to 28.4 percent shooting on corner threes this season. That is
unsustainable, but perhaps another sign of how much Adelman emphasizes
contesting this shot.
似乎有點運氣成份 今年的灰狼對手的底線三分不但出手少
命中率還只有28.4% 不過也許這也要歸功於Adelman要求球員能出去挑戰對手投籃
Doug Collins’ Philladelphia team, filled with rangy and quick athletes, has
effectively shut down the corner three for two years running. Only Chicago has
allowed fewer such shots combined over the last two seasons, and Philly
opponents have shot below the league average from the corner in both seasons.
文前提到的76人隊 由Doug Collins帶領一群體能好速度快的球員
連續兩年 很有效的嚇阻對手出手底線三分 (兩年總數只多公牛)
兩年內對手的底線三分命中率 也低於聯盟平均
Another coach to watch: Lawrence Frank. The Pistons are right behind Philly in
corner-three attempts allowed after surrendering many more than average last
season while playing at a tortoise-like pace. Frank, of course, is a
defense-first coach who spent 2010-11 with the Celtics, a team that patrols the
corner well.
另一個你可以注意的教練 是Lawrence Frank 去年防守不好得活塞隊
在Lawrence的執教下 今年對手底線三分出手數只輸給76人排第三
他是一個防守排第一的教練 10-11年他在Celtics體系工作
Celtics也是把角落守得很好得球隊之一
Likewise, the Lakers are allowing about 1.2 fewer attempts from the corner this
season under Mike Brown.
湖人今年在Mike Brown的執教下 比去年讓對手少出手底線三分1.2次
‧ Luck may play a part. It would be interesting to spend a bit more time with
these numbers to see how much teams can really control opponent shooting
percentages from this spot. League observers ranging from Phoenix coach Alvin
Gentry to Basketball Prospectus genius Kevin Pelton have argued that random
luck plays a fairly large role in three-point percentage against, as evidenced
by how the same stat often varies hugely from year-to-year on teams that
undergo very little roster turnover.
如果我可以在研究久一點 也許可以發現
那些球隊可以讓對手在底線三分的命中率不高
不過很多籃球專家 包括太陽隊教練簡崔
認為有時候只是隨機的運氣 影響著三分球的命中率
所以同樣的一個數據 即使球員名單變化不大
每年跟每年也許都有很大的差異
San Antonio, for instance, is holding teams to 36 percent shooting on corner
threes this season after yielding that ghastly 47 percent figure last season.
Is that luck, or has Popovich’s club sharpened its focus?
像是今年的馬刺 只讓對手底線三分36%
但是去年對手卻有超好得47%
是運氣成份 還是波波今年改變得防守方針？
--
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※ 轉錄者: eertllams (71.236.225.133), 時間: 03/30/2012 12:31:20
※ 編輯: eertllams 來自: 71.236.225.133 (03/30 12:31)
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