Re: [新聞] 對抗北韓威脅 卡爾文森號將赴朝鮮半島
朝鮮已經是核武國家,美國如果想要先制攻擊,必須同步攻擊所有可能的據點,否
則日、韓就有吃核彈的危險。即使部署 THAAD,朝鮮也能用火砲重創韓國。這也是
日、韓都不希望美國實際動武的原因。
在槍響前,調動部隊耀武揚威都只是秀。但如果認真研擬戰略,如果只實施斬首行
動,很難控制朝鮮的報復規模。金正恩的繼任者,未必會立刻改採美國能接受的政
策。斬首行動,很容易變成更大規模戰爭的前導。
因此,如果美國研擬先制攻擊方案,很可能必須規劃一開戰就空陸同步進攻。美國
先以電子和空中武力,癱瘓朝鮮的空防和通訊,攻擊所有可能的核武及飛彈隱藏據
點。而韓軍配合駐韓美軍,同步越過停戰線攻擊朝鮮陸軍,讓朝鮮陸軍無暇攻擊韓
國。爭取在最短時間,將兩韓邊界向北推五十公里以上,讓韓國更安全。
美韓陸軍北進之時,美國空中武力應該已經完成解除朝鮮核武的任務。朝鮮應該很
快就知道正遭受猛烈攻擊,如果核武力量倖存,應該會付諸實戰。總之,第一個廿
四小時結束時,朝鮮的核武如果不是被美軍炸了,就是已經扔出去了。
D 日 H+24 時,朝鮮陸軍即使還在停戰線上抵抗,損失也已經大到難以維持了。很
快會無力維持戰線,被美韓陸軍打出缺口。
接下來就是中國是否參戰的問題。為了避免中國參戰,美韓陸軍北推邊界後,應該
不會長驅直入進攻平壤。陸軍清理戰場,由空中武力繼續邀請中、朝派員和談。
畢竟開戰就有部隊和日、韓遭到報復,以及和中國戰爭的風險。如果不打到讓朝鮮
解除核武和對韓國的威脅,就有可能白打。
但站在韓國政府立場,嗯,為了解除朝鮮的核武,玩這麼大?還不如賭朝鮮的核武
不會丟自己。
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還有 71 則推文
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以目前的情形,川普已經在朝鮮問題上倒轉乾坤,朝鮮已經不是中國可以和川普交
易的籌碼,而是先決條件。中國必須在朝鮮問題上證明自己有控制能力,才能和川
普談貿易待遇。所以川普大概會保持裝模作樣,讓中國去傷腦筋。如果中國達不到
川普的要求,正好給川普保護主義的藉口。
※ 編輯: clausewitz (114.27.111.214), 04/12/2017 15:53:11
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以前中國總是用朝鮮要求美國在什麼議題上交換,只要以後換美國要求中國管好朝
鮮再來談,美國的戰略空間就拉大很多了。
※ 編輯: clausewitz (114.27.103.118), 04/12/2017 17:52:57
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討論串 (同標題文章)
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