[農場] Top 15 Prospects: Washington Nationals
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-10-prospects-washington-nationals/
The Washington Nationals organization has come a long way in a short period
of time. The former Montreal Expos club suffered from tight budgets due to
MLB control while a suitable buyer was found. As a result, the ability to
acquire top-notch talent via the amateur draft and international free agency
was all but snuffed out. Some smart, aggressive drafting by the current front
office has turned the minor league system around in a hurry.
前言跳過。
1. Bryce Harper | RF/LF
BORN: October 16, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 1 season (A+/AA in 2011)
ACQUIRED: 2010 1st round, Nevada JC (first overall)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st
SCOUTING REPORT: Harper comes as close as anyone not named Mike Stanton to
have legit 80 power on the 20-80 scouting scale. He also has a very good eye
for his age, although he doesn’t handle off-speed pitches as well as the
hard stuff but that should improve with experience. He has the chance to be a
four- or five-tool player.
球探報告：
砲瓦有80分的水準(不過還是比不上怪力男 Mike Stanton)，同時以他現在的年紀來說
選球算是不錯了。打變化球(off-speed pitches)不及打快速球來得好，多累積些經驗
也許能改善這個缺點。有機會長成四拍子甚至五拍子型的球員。
YEAR IN REVIEW: Despite the immense scrutiny that followed Harper everywhere
he went, the 18-year-old former catcher quieted doubters. He hit .318 with a
.236 ISO rate in 258 at-bats in A-ball. He was jumped to double-A and posted
a triple-slash line of .256/.329/.395 in 129 at-bats. His power slipped to an
.140 ISO but the decline in numbers is not concerning considering his age.
年度回顧：
儘管 Harper 無論身在何處都受到人們的放大檢視，但這位年僅18歲的前捕手頂級新秀
透過表現讓這些質疑者閉嘴，在1A繳出了.318的打擊率以及.236的純長打率(258個打數)
；儘管升上2A後三圍數字大幅下滑至.256/.329/.395(129個打數)，ISO 也跌到只剩.140
，不過考量到他的年齡沒必要過分在意這點。
YEAR AHEAD: Harper will almost certainly return to double-A to begin the 2012
season, although a strong spring could vault him to triple-A. It would not be
a shock to see the teenager in Washington by August. Even so, he’ll probably
struggle a little bit with advanced pitchers since he only has 118 games of
professional experience under his belt (including the ’10 Arizona Fall
League).
明年展望：
Harper 明年幾乎確定會從2A開始打起(春訓表現好的話有機會從3A出發)，快的話甚至
8月就有機會看到 Harper 登上大聯盟。即使如此，對於職業比賽經驗尚淺的 Harper
來說未來若面對到更高階層級的投手時恐怕還有一番苦頭得吃。
CAREER OUTLOOK: There isn’t anyone on the current 25-man roster that possess
any sort of threat to Harper’s eventual playing time once the organization
deems him MLB-ready. It’s hard not to predict massive success for Harper,
although there are still concerns over his maturity and we’ve seen what that
can to do players’ careers.
未來展望：
一旦國民認為 Harper 已經準備妥當，沒有任何人能威脅到 Harper 的上場時間。要想
斷言 Harper 未來無法獲得成功這一點實在很難，然而他的成熟程度依舊值得關注，且
這一點對於球員生涯成就影響的重要性我們已經看過夠多例子了。
2. Anthony Rendon | 2B/3B
BORN: June 6, 1990
EXPERIENCE: College
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round, Rice University (6th overall)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
SCOUTING REPORT: A third baseman in college, Rendon will likely move to
second base due to the presence of Ryan Zimmerman at the hot corner. He
projects to be at least average defensively at the position, but his bat
should be well above average. Rendon has excellent bat speed and projects to
hit for both average and power.
球探報告：
儘管 Rendon 在大學時期是鎮守三壘，然而在國民隊三壘已經有 Ryan Zimmerman 卡位
的情況下國民應該會讓 Rendon 改練二壘。預測 Rendon 在二壘的守備能力至少有平均
水準，而打擊則將遠優於平均之上。揮棒速度極快，被預期將會是一位兼具打擊和長打
實力的打者。
YEAR IN REVIEW: If it had not been for a serious of unrelated injuries, he
could very well have gone first overall in 2011. It’s a minor miracle to
consider that Washington got Rendon with the sixth overall pick. You could
argue that the club received the best player available for three straight
seasons (Stephen Strasburg and Harper are the other two).
年度回顧：
若非受到非相關傷勢的嚴重影響，Rendon 理應是今年的選秀狀元才是。對於國民能夠在
第6順位撿到 Rendon 這件事可被稱作是一個微小的奇蹟。你可以說國民隊已經連續三年
都得到選秀會上最好的球員(Strasburg 和 Harper 則是其餘兩位)。
(編按：第一句不確定...)
YEAR AHEAD: Rendon could start the season in either high-A or double-A. He
could be ready for the Majors by the end of the 2012 season if he can stay
healthy. He should have little to no trouble with minor league pitchers but
will need some time to learn his new position, although he does have some
experience at second base.
明年展望：
明年預計會從高階1A或2A出發，若 Rendon 能夠打滿整個球季並保持健康，2013年有機
會直接挑戰大聯盟。小聯盟投手對 Rendon 而言不成威脅，但他可能需要些時間習慣他
的新守備位置，不過 Rendon 本身之前就有過一些守二壘的經驗。
CAREER OUTLOOK: The former Rice University star has the chance to be a MLB
all-star at both second and third base. Although none of his injuries have
been of the chronic variety, you have to be a little worried about his
inability to stay healthy over the past few years.
未來展望：
有機會長成 All-Star 級的選手。Rendon 的傷勢應該不至於對他有長遠的影響，但還是
難免會讓人擔心他是否能長保健康。
3. A.J. Cole | RHP
BORN: January 5, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 2 seasons (A)
ACQUIRED: 2010 4th round, Florida HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 3rd
SCOUTING REPORT: Cole has the potential for a very good pitcher’s frame (6’4
” 180 lbs). His fastball reaches the mid-90s already and there may be more
in the tank. His secondary pitches include a potentially-plus curveball and
developing changeup. Cole shows good control overall but needs better
fastball command.
球探報告：
憑藉其絕佳的投手身材(6呎4吋)，A.J. Cole 具有極高的天賦。其快速球已經可以達到
mid-90s，甚至有機會更快，此外他還有一顆 plus 級潛力的曲球以及尚在開發的變速
球。整體而言 Cole 的 control 非常不錯，但對快速球的 command 還有待改進。
YEAR IN REVIEW: Cole has emerged as the top pitcher in the system but two
college pitchers, Matt Purke and Alex Meyer, are both hot on his heels. The
young pitcher spent the year in low-A and pitched better than his 4.04 ERA
would indicate, as seen by his 2.52 FIP. He gave up his fair share of hits
(.342 BABIP) but missed a lot of bats (10.92 K/9) and showed above-average
control (2.43 BB/9).
年度回顧：
Cole 目前已經是國民農場中最頂尖的投手，Matt Purke 和 Alex Meyer 則緊追在後。
儘管 Cole 今年在低階1A的防禦率是4.04，但這是壞運氣所導致的產物，進階數據 FIP
顯示 Cole 的實際數字只有2.52。他被敲出了許多安打(BABIP .342)，但卻擁有相當高
的三振率(10.92 K/9)並顯示出其優於平均水準的控球能力(2.43 BB/9)。
YEAR AHEAD: Cole’s 2011 season did not begin until May after being held back
in extended spring training to limit his innings total. He should spend a
full year in high-A ball in 2012, although a strong showing could lead to
some time in double-A. If he can continue to show improvements with his
secondary pitches, he could be in Washington in 2013.
明年展望：
由於球團有意限制 Cole 2011年的投球局數，因此季初就讓 Cole 參加延長春訓，直至
5月份才讓他回低階1A參賽。明年 Cole 應該會在高階1A待滿整個球季，若 Cole 在該
層級表現優異則有機會升上2A。假設他的第二武器球路開發順利，最快2013年 Cole 就
能挑戰升上大聯盟。
CAREER OUTLOOK: Cole has the chance to be a No. 1 or 2 starter if everything
breaks right for him – and his changeup improves. He may even add a few
ticks to his fastball if he continues to add muscle to his slender frame.
Once a weakness for this organization, Cole could help anchor a very strong
starting rotation before too long.
未來展望：
若養成順利且他的變速球確實有在進步，天花板將上看第1～2號先發。此外如果他能將
體格練得更壯碩一些，則球速還有機會更快。在不久的將來一旦國民隊SP出現空缺，則
Cole 將遞補上去並為國民隊建構起一組強大的先發輪值。
4. Alex Meyer | RHP
BORN: January 3, 1990
EXPERIENCE: College
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round, U of Kentucky (23rd overall)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
SCOUTING REPORT: Because he’s so big (6’9” 220 lbs), Meyer may always
struggle to repeat his delivery, which will hamper his command and control.
He should still be able to overpower hitters, though, thanks to a 95+ mph
fastball and wipeout slider. His changeup isn’t bad either, although he hasn
’t used it a lot.
球探報告：
受到身材太過高大(6呎9吋)的影響，Meyer 的投球機制總是難以固定，這也嚴重他的
command 以及 control；然而憑藉著動輒 95 mph+ 的快速球以及刁鑽的滑球 Meyer
往往還是能徹底壓制打者，同時他還有一顆不算差的變速球，不過 Meyer 本身並不常
使用這顆變速。
YEAR IN REVIEW: Meyer had a very nice junior season for Kentucky after
struggling for his first two years. He flew up draft boards and eventually
went 23rd overall to Washington after some draft analysts even projected him
in the first 10 picks. Meyer signed late so he did not pitch in the regular
season but he did attend the Nationals’ fall instructional league.
年度回顧：
進入大學後前兩年都投得十分掙扎的 Meyer 終於在第三年有所突破，也使他的選秀順序
躍升至第23順位且最終被國民隊選走，部分選秀分析專家在選秀前甚至預測 Meyer 可能
是今年選秀前10種子。由於簽約時間較晚的緣故，因此 Meyer 今年無緣在小聯盟賽季中
一展身手，不過他將會去參加秋季教育聯盟。
YEAR AHEAD: Meyer could very well join A.J. Cole, Robbie Ray, and Matt Purke
in high-A, which would create an outstanding rotation for Carolina League
fans. Washington is quickly building a very strong organization and may want
to challenge some of its top college picks in the hopes of having them
support the likes of Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg and, eventually,
Bryce Harper.
明年展望：
Meyer 明年非常有機會和 A.J. Cole、Robbie Ray 及 Matt Purke 共組豪華輪值圈並於
高階1A並肩奮戰。國民隊在短期內打造出相當強大的農場組織，並嘗試挑選了這些大學
頂尖球員，期許能獲得他們的戰力回饋，如同 Jordan Zimmermann、Stephen Strasburg
以及 Bryce Harper 等人一般。
(編按：這段後半段不確定該怎麼翻比較好，懇請其他人幫忙 Orz)
CAREER OUTLOOK: Boston made a big push for Meyer after drafting him out of
high school but the right-hander made a smart move to attend college. His
game has improved but he still has some rough edges. If he can smooth those
out, he could develop into a No. 2 or 3 starter. If not, it’s not hard to
envision him as a high-leverage reliever at the MLB level.
未來展望：
儘管 Meyer 進大學後確實有所進步，但他還是有些缺失。假設他能改善這些缺點，他
將是位具有第2~3號先發實力的先發投手；若是先發養成失敗，至少還有機會讓他改練
high-leverage RP。
5. Brian Goodwin | CF
BORN: Nov. 2, 1990
EXPERIENCE: College
ACQUIRED: 2011 supplemental 1st round, Miami Dade JC
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
SCOUTING REPORT: Goodwin is known for having good (but not great) speed on
the base paths and he could also add power to his attack once he matures as a
hitter. He shows signs of being a good fielder but he’s more likely to end
up in left field than center.
球探報告：
Goodwin 向以擁有優異(但還稱不上極佳)的腳程聞名，以及未來若發展成熟可能還能
長出更多炮瓦。有機會能成長為不錯的防守者，不過最後定位於左外野的機率要大於
中外野。
YEAR IN REVIEW: It’s not often that a move from a NCAA Division 1 school to
a junior college works out in a player’s favor. However, that’s exactly
what happened to Goodwin. It’s also important to note that he transferred
after getting suspended for violating a university policy rather than for
anything baseball related.
年度回顧：
從 NCAA 第一分區的大學轉學至二年制專科學校這種事對一位棒球選手來說並不常見。
可以肯定的是 Goodwin 身上確實發生了一些事情。值得注意的是 Goodwin 是因為違反
大學政策，而不是任何跟棒球有關的事件，才遭到休學處分並轉學的。
YEAR AHEAD: Because he played at the junior college level in 2011, the
Nationals organization may want Goodwin to begin the year in low-A as he has
yet to play in a pro game after signing late. He should rack up a solid
number of steals because he projects to both hit for average and take the
free pass when it’s offered up. He may initially struggle with strikeouts,
especially if he tries to force the power game.
明年展望：
由於2011年 Goodwin 都是在二年制專科學校打球，加上簽約時間較晚因此 Goodwin 目
前還沒打過職業賽事，國民可能會讓 Goodwin 明年先從低階1A開始打起。 Goodwin 被
認為無論在打擊上或是選球能力方面都有一定的水準，因此可預期他在盜壘數字方面將
會相當可觀。一開始打職業賽他可能會像個電風扇，特別是如果他刻意想要追求敲長打
的話。
CAREER OUTLOOK: Goodwin has the potential to be a five-tool player if
everything clicks. He’s a toolsy player that still has work to do on his
defense and it remains to be seen if his power will develop as expected. I don
’t see him becoming a star but he could develop into a very good baseball
player.
未來展望：
養成順利的話 Goodwin 有機會成為一位五拍子型的球員。Goodwin 在各方面都頗具天賦
，不過仍需要努力加強他的防守，同時他的砲瓦是否真能夠如預期般長出來也有待觀察。
我不認為 Goodwin 最終能成為一位明星級的選手，但他有機會成為一位非常不錯的棒球
員。
6. Matt Purke | LHP
BORN: July 17, 1990
EXPERIENCE: College
ACQUIRED: 2011 3rd round, Texas Christian U
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
SCOUTING REPORT: Purke has suffered through a variety of well-documented
ailments (back, shoulder, blisters) and velocity loss (down to 82-85 mph in
games). When he’s on, though, he’s a southpaw that possesses an
above-average 90-95 mph fastball. He rounds out his repertoire with a good
slider and changeup. Durability questions will continue to haunt Purke until
(if?) he can string together a number of dominating starts.
球探報告：
Purke 過去遭遇過各式各樣已受證實的病痛(背傷、肩傷及水泡)以及失速的問題(一度在
比賽中測到其球速只剩下82～85mph)；然而，健康的 Purke 是一位擁有一顆優於平均水
準、球速可達到90～95mph的快速球，且另外配備出色滑球和變速球的強力左投。當然，
過去豐富的傷痛紀錄將使得 Purke 的耐投性不斷受到質疑，直到(或該說如果)他能持續
不斷徹底宰制打者為止。
YEAR IN REVIEW: Assigned to the Arizona Fall League after signing late, Purke
did not pitch much. He also spent time in the fall instructional league but
did not really stand out. Despite the big paycheck, the 2011 season was
pretty much a lost year for Purke.
年度回顧：
由於簽約時間較晚，Purke 在 AFL 將不會有太多上場時間。另外 Purke 也參加了秋季
教育聯盟，不過也並沒有太多表現。儘管拿到了高額簽約金，但今年對 Purke 來說想
必是失敗的一年。
YEAR AHEAD: The 2012 season will be a big one for Purke as he’ll look to
prove that he’s healthy after a very disappointing sophomore season at Texas
Christian University. The lefty may begin the year in high-A ball with a
large group of impressive arms. Given his problems, though, the organization
may want to play it safe and allow him to build a solid foundation in low-A
ball before challenging him. At this point no one really knows what to expect
from Purke but the club has a lot invested in him.
明年展望：
2012年對 Purke 而言將是非常重要的一年，他極需要在明年證明自己的身體健康狀況，
以洗刷今年球季表現不佳的恥辱。 Purke 明年將有機會在高階1A與其他國民漁塭中的頂
級投手新秀攜手作戰，然而鑒於他過去的健康情形，國民球團對 Purke 的態度或許會較
為保守，有可能會先讓 Purke 在低階1A打基礎。即使國民在 Purke 身上下了重注，然
而現階段沒有人真正知道究竟能從這位潛力左投身上得到什麼樣的回報。
CAREER OUTLOOK: Again, it’s all one big question mark at this point but
Purke has the potential to be a No. 2 starter if Washington can find a way to
get him back to the level he was at in high school and during his freshman
season of college.
未來展望：
再一次闡明，現階段沒有人能預知 Purke 未來的發展，但只要國民能幫助 Purke 找回
他過去高中時期以及大學第一年時的身手，Purke 確實是位具有 No. 2 starter 實力
的優秀投手。
7. Brad Peacock | RHP
BORN: Feb. 2, 1988
EXPERIENCE: 5 seasons (AA/AAA/MLB)
ACQUIRED: 2006 41st round, Florida CC
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 9th
SCOUTING REPORT: Peacock flashes a solid three-pitch repertoire that includes
a 90-95 mph fastball, changeup, and curveball. He’s still working on the
consistency of his changeup and his fastball command comes and goes. He doesn
’t have the strongest frame so durability could be a bit of a question mark
once he hits the 180-inning mark
球探報告：
Peacock 擁有三種不錯的球路：速度介於90～95mph的直球，變速以及曲球。不過目前
他的變速球品質以及對快速球的 command 都還不夠穩定；同時由於先天身材上的劣勢
，Peacok 的耐操程度也是一項疑慮，令人懷疑他是否能達成單季180局。
YEAR IN REVIEW: Peacock has come a long way as a prospect and made his MLB
debut in 2011. The right-hander showed a solid three-pitch mix and did a nice
job of using all his pitches. His changeup has been considered his third-best
pitch but it looked good in the Majors. Peacock pitched well in double-A
(98.2 IP, 1.87 FIP) and was OK in triple-A (48.0, 4.18).
年度回顧：
Peacock 在今年有了爆發性的成長，而他在小聯盟優異的表現也為他贏得在了在大聯盟
的處女秀。升上大聯盟後 Peacock 將自己的三種球路發揮得淋漓盡致，並取得了不錯
的成果。Peacoak 的變速球向來被認為只是他第三強的球種，然而就目前看來這顆變速
也具有大聯盟的水準。Peacock 今年在2A表現傑出(98局，1.87 FIP)，而在3A的表現也
還算可以(48IP，4.18 FIP)。
YEAR AHEAD: He has nothing left to prove in the minors and his development
could allow the club to slot him into the fourth or fifth hole in the
starting rotation, thus saving the club some money a generic veteran arm. The
organization may also think about easing him into the Majors with a bullpen
role. Control and command will be the biggest things to keep an eye on in
2012.
明年展望：
Peacoak 在小聯盟已經沒什麼需要磨練的了。而他今年出色的表現也足以讓球團考慮將
他列為明年的第4號或第5號先發，並藉此省下一筆添購SP老將的經費，或是讓他擔任牛
棚的一員。而 Peacoak 的 control 及 command 發展情況也將會是2012年觀察的首要
重點。
CAREER OUTLOOK: Peacock has a good chance at developing into a reliable third
starter at the MLB level. He shows a good fastball and his curveball should
be a nice second weapon for him. His overall potential hinges on the
changeup. If it doesn’t become more consistent, he could end up as a
high-leverage reliever, most likely in the eighth inning.
未來展望：
具有成為穩定第3號先發的資質，擁有一顆非常好的快速球以及一顆還不錯的曲球作為
第二武器，而培育成敗的重要關鍵就在於他的變速球是否能練得起來。假使 Peacoak
最終未能控制好他的變速，也還有機會讓他改練成一位強力佈局投手。
8. Robbie Ray | LHP
BORN: Oct. 1, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 1 season (A)
ACQUIRED: 2010 12th round, Tennessee HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: Ray isn’t a huge guy but he has a decent pitcher’s frame
some projectability. The left-hander has an 87-92 mph fastball that has
reportedly touched the mid-90s occasionally. His changeup is good but his
improved breaking ball is still slurvy. He is a fly-ball pitcher that needs
to work down in the zone more consistently.
球探報告：
身材不算高大，不過未來體格有機會長成合乎標準。這位左投手的速球球速介於87～92
mph之間，偶爾能飆到 mid-90s。變速球很棒，但 breaking ball 即使已經有所進步卻
還是不怎麼能用。Ray 本身屬於飛球型的投手，同時他還需要努力將球能夠經常壓在好
球帶的下方。
YEAR IN REVIEW: Like Cole, Ray was held back in extended spring training in
an effort to limit his innings in 2011. Once he reached low-A ball in May,
the southpaw displayed a nice approach for his age. He clearly tired as the
year progressed with his ERAs each month as proof: 0.38, 3.92, 1.73, 6.91,
and 11.25. His last two starts of the year muddied his overall numbers with
14 hits and 12 runs allowed in 7.1 innings.
年度回顧：
跟 Cole 一樣，球團基於投球局數限制的考量於季初讓 Ray 參加延長春訓，直至5月份
Ray 才正式投入季賽，並在低階1A投出了以一位19歲的年輕投手來說非常出色的成績。
不過隨著球季的進行 Ray 的體力也逐漸不堪負荷，這從他逐月竄升的防禦率可略窺端
倪 (0.38→3.92→1.73→6.91→11.25)，尤其他在今年最後兩場先發徹底崩盤，只投了
7.1局就被狂敲14安，噴掉12分自責分，更讓他的整體數字變得非常不好看。
YEAR AHEAD: Ray will not have the same innings restriction in 2012 that he
had in ’11. The organization is likely expecting him to break the 100-inning
mark for the first time in his career. He should spend the majority of the
year in high-A ball and there is really no need to rush him now that the club
has a lot more pitching depth around him.
明年展望：
2012年 Ray 將不再受到跟2011年相同的局數限制束縛。國民球團計畫明年讓 Ray 投超
過100局，這也將是 Ray 生涯首度挑戰100局大關。 Ray 明年預計絕大多數的時間都會
待在高階1A，畢竟以國民現有的農場SP深度而言實在沒必要去 rush 一位才剛滿20歲的
年輕新秀。
CAREER OUTLOOK: He’s still quite raw but Ray could develop into a solid No.
3 starter. He’ll most likely move up one level at a time and may not see the
Majors until 2014, so he’s a long-term project. At worst, he should develop
into a middle reliever but he hasn’t shown enough success against
left-handed batters to be considered a LOOGY.
未來展望：
儘管目前 Ray 還太過青澀，但他確實具有 No.3 starter 的潛力。國民應該會讓 Ray
按部就班的升級，在2014年到來之前應該都沒機會於大聯盟看到 Ray 的身影。最糟的
發展下 Ray 應該還是能擔任一人左投，儘管目前他尚未證明自己能夠壓制住左打者。
9. Derek Norris | C
BORN: Feb. 14, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 5 seasons (AA)
ACQUIRED: 2007 4th round, Kansas HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 2nd
SCOUTING REPORT: Norris is a bat-first catcher, which isn’t great news when
you consider his .210 batting average in 2011 at double-A. He’ll probably
never hit for a huge average because he swings and misses so much but he will
get on base a lot (and clog them) and provide quite a bit of pop when he
makes contact with the ball. Defensively, he does a nice job throwing out
runners (51% in ’10, 40% in ’11) but his receiving and game calling both
need work.
球探報告：
向來以打擊能力見長的 Norris 今年在2A卻只繳出2成10的悽慘打擊率。也許 Norris
因為揮空率過高的缺點致使他永遠也無法達成高打擊率的目標，但他依舊能保持高上
壘率(同時堵塞壘包)並貢獻一些長打。守備方面，Norris 在狙殺壘上跑者這點發揮得
相當不錯(2010年阻殺率51%，11年阻殺率40%)，但他的接球技巧以及 game calling
(配球跟引導投手的能力)技能都有待磨練。
YEAR IN REVIEW: It’s been a rough two years for Norris in terms of hitting
for average (.235, .210). You can blame his BABIP (.251) to some degree in
2011, but the bigger issue was the 27% strikeout rate. If we’re looking for
positives for his year in double-A, it would be his walk rate (18.2 BB%) and
power output (.237 ISO).
年度回顧：
過去兩年 Norris 的打擊率都相當慘澹(10年：.235；11年：.210)。部分球迷認為今年
有一部分原因應歸咎於他的BABIP過低所致 (.251)，然而導致 Norris 打擊率偏低最根
本的原因出在他那高達 27% 的被三振率。不過即使今年成績不佳，Norris 在被保送率
(18.2% BB%)以及長打力(.237 ISO)這兩點依舊表現得相當出色。
YEAR AHEAD: Quite honestly, Norris’ development is headed in the wrong
direction and he’s in danger of falling out of the spotlight when it comes
to the organization’s top prospects. He’ll have to have a bounce-back year
while repeating double-A if he’s going to get any traction in his question
to become the Nationals’ backstop of the future. Expect the organization to
slow his development down.
坦白說 Norris 目前的養成情況正往壞的方向發展，而且有養壞的危機。倘若 Norris
還想要競爭國民隊未來的捕手一職，明年他就必須在2A徹底反彈繳出亮眼的一張成績單
才行。預計國民將會放慢 Norris 的發展腳步。
CAREER OUTLOOK: As implied, the 2012 season will be a big one for Norris as
he looks to rebound from a disappointing year. His age works to his
advantage, as does his raw power but it’s hard to project more than a backup
role for him at the big league level, along the lines of Sal Fasano‘s
career. Norris gets the benefit of the doubt for now because he plays a key
position (albeit not overly well).
含蓄地說，2012年 Norris 應該會觸底反彈。Norris 有年紀和砲瓦方面的優勢，但目前
很難期待 Norris 能養成比後備捕手還好，他現在的情況跟 Sal Fasano 極為相似。現
階段由於 Norris 就算被人們質疑，但他還是有身為捕手這樣的優勢存在(儘管他的成績
並不理想)。
(編按：不行了，後面這兩段懇請高人指點)
10. Destin Hood | RF/LF
BORN: April 3, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons (A+)
ACQUIRED: 2008 2nd round, Alabama HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
SCOUTING REPORT: Swayed from a football scholarship to the University of
Alabama, Hood entered pro ball with a lot of work to do to learn the nuances
of the sport. He shows above-average raw power thanks to his excellent bat
speed and he made big strides in 2011 in terms of pitch recognition. The
outfielder has also improved his outfield defense and could become
above-average at a corner spot.
球探報告：
捨棄 Alabama 大學所開出的美式足球獎學金轉而效力職棒，對於這兩項運動間的細微
差別 Destin Hood 還有許多部分得去學習和努力。由於其傑出的揮棒速度 Hood 展現
出高於平均但尚未開發完成的長打能力，且今年在球種辨識能力上取得了重大的突破
，同時守備方面也有所進步，有機會成為一位優於一般水平的 corner outfielder。
YEAR IN REVIEW: Hood made a lot of strides in his game over the past year. A
formerly-raw player with the potential for three or four tools, he finally
began to make good on the scouting reports. Moving up from low-A to high-A in
’11, Hood saw his strikeout rate drop almost 5% to 17.9 K%, and his ISO rate
rose from .104 to .168. Increasing one’s power output while actually
decreasing strikeouts is a very good sign in terms of a hitter’s
development. He also saw his wOBA jump from .326 to .370.
年度回顧：
與去年相比 Hood 在今年擁有長足的進步。這位尚嫌青澀的選手具有三拍子或是四拍子
的潛力，並終於開始受到球探們的稱讚。今年從低階1A轉戰高階1A，Hood 將他的被三振
率降至17.9%，比去年少了將進5%，而且他的純長打率也從.104大幅躍升至.168。在長打
能力提升的同時還降低了被三振數，對於一位打者的發展來說這是一個非常好的跡象；
此外 Hood 的 wOBA 也從去年的.326進步至.370。
YEAR AHEAD: With a little more fine tuning, Hood could zoom up this list in
2012 and is a player that prospect watchers (and fantasy players) will want
to keep an eye on. All signs point to a huge breakout in double-A in 2012.
Consider yourselves warned.
明年展望：
憑藉著今年優異的表現，Hood 得以名列於這份名單之上，並將開始受到其他人的關注。
所有跡象都顯示 Hood 2012年在 2A 的發展將是一切最重要的轉捩點。請仔細考慮你們
自己提出的預告。
CAREER OUTLOOK: If he continues to show improvement, Hood could become an
above-average outfielder, both offensively and defensively, that will hit for
a decent average, provide 20-25 homers and get one base at a consistent clip.
未來展望：
假使 Hood 能持續進步，他將會是一位無論攻守方面都優於一般水平、擁有平均之上的
打擊率、一年能敲出20～25轟且能夠穩定上壘的外野手。
The Next Five
11. Sammy Solis, LHP: Had he been healthy for all of 2011, Solis may have
made the Top 10 list. His ceiling is decent and he could pitch at the level
of a No. 3 starter for a few years but will likely settle in as more of a No.
4 guy. He displays good control, as well as solid command of his fastball. He
has the chance to be an innings-eater thanks to his big frame (assuming the
injury woes are behind him).
假使 Solis 2011年整個球季都能保持健康，他應該會是這份名單的 Top 10。資質不差
，未來若順利升上大聯盟，大部分時期他應該會是個合格的 No.4 starter ，其他時間
有機會爆氣表現得像是個 No. 3。對於快速球的 control 極佳且 command 也很不錯。
假設 Solis 能夠擺脫傷痛的糾纏，從他的高大身材來評斷有機會成為一隻工作馬。
12. Chris Marrero, 1B: An ’06 first round pick out of a Florida high school,
Marrero has developed slower than expected. It remains to be seen if he can
produce the type of offence that clubs expect from the first base position.
The organization originally tried to play him in left field but he eventually
found his way back to the infield and has made some strides defensively over
the past year but he’ll probably never be more than average at the position.
身為06年選秀第一輪的 Marrero 其成長比當初預計的要來得緩慢。究竟 Marrero 是否
能提供國民隊對身為一壘手的他所期待的火力輸出還有待觀察。國民起初希望 Marrero
能夠守左外野，但他最終還是回到內野，並於過去一年內在防守方面取得了重大的進步
，然而他可能永遠無法在一壘這個位置繳出高於平均的產值。
13. Steve Lombardozzi, 2B: There was talk this past season that Washington
refused to trade Lombardozzi when teams asked for him. He’s produced very
good numbers throughout the minors but projects to be more of an average
regular than a star. He hits for average but doesn’t have much power or true
foot speed; Lombardozzi is an average defensive player.
今年球季部分球隊向國民要求交出 Lombardozzi 作為交易包裹時皆遭到國民隊的拒絕。
Lombardozzi 今年在小聯盟表現優異，不過一般還是認為 Lombardozzi 變成明星選手的
希望並不大，較有機會長成一位普通的正式球員。打擊能力OK但沒啥砲瓦，腳程也不是
真的特別快。被預期會是一位普通的防守型球員。
14. Zach Walters, SS: Obtained from Arizona in a late-season trade for
veteran pitcher Jason Marquis, Walters projects to be a big league utility
player; he’s already shown the ability to play second base, third base and
shortstop. The switch-hitter has some gap power but not enough to justify the
+20% strikeout rate that he posted in 2011. One scout recently commented on
Walters:
“Zach has always had tools; he ran average, [showed a] plus arm at
times, pull power… I think that is what was intriguing about him. He had a
lot of tools and needed to sharpen them… A shortstop with size, strength,
power, plus arm, average run [tool], and can switch hit… Doesn’t that sound
intriguing?” he asked. “Because of his versatility I think that he has a
chance to be a very valuable utility player, but it hinges on whether his bat
continues to improve and whether he becomes an everyday player. He is showing
that he has a good chance to be a Major League regular.”
於 Jason Marquis 交易案中從響尾蛇隊所獲得的新秀，被預期是一位工具人，能夠守
二壘、三壘以及游擊。這位左右開弓的打者確實有一些長打能力，但還不足以補正他在
11年超過20%的被三振率。一位球探近期內曾這樣評論 Zach Walters：
「Zach 一直具備著許多工具；其速度有平均水準，偶爾也展現過 plus 級的臂力，以及
不錯的拉打砲瓦...我認為這就是為什麼 Zach 是一位耐人尋味的新秀。他是個多拍子
球員，且需要將這些工具轉換為實績，一個具備身材、實力、長打能力、優秀臂力、
平均水準的速度，而且還是個左右開弓的游擊手...這難道還不夠讓人有興趣嗎？」
「由於他的多功能性我認為他有機會成為一位非常有價值的工具人，但成功的關鍵取決
於他的打擊是否能持續進步，以及他是否能成為一位先發級的選手。他正在證明自己
有非常高的機率能夠成為大聯盟的正式選手。」
15. Jeff Kobernus, 2B: Although he might end up being a better hitter than
Walters (at least more consistent), Kobernus gets knocked down for his lack
of versatility. Of the two players, Kobernus has less pop in his bat and is a
little to aggressive but he has better pure speed and more athleticism.
雖然 Kobernus 或許會是個比 Walters 更好的打者(至少 Kobernus 比較穩定)，但缺乏
多功能性這點對 Kobernus 而言是最嚴重的致命傷。與 Walters 相比 Kobernus 的炮瓦
較弱且出棒也不夠積極，但就純速度及運動天賦這兩點來說 Kobernus 要勝過 Walters。
SLEEPER ALERT: Josh Smoker, LHP: Once considered a pretty good starting
pitcher prospect and the 31st pick of the ’07 amateur draft, Smoker fell on
hard times due to injuries and inconsistency. A permanent move to the
bullpen, though, may have saved his career. His fastball is now showing
mid-90s velocity and his breaking ball gives him a second weapon. He’s tough
to hit when he’s on (5.68 H/9) but he needs to find the plate more
consistently (6.57 BB/9).
其他值得觀察的名單：
Josh Smoker, LHP：
07年第31選秀順位、一度被認為是擁有極高天份的前頂級新秀，近幾年卻因為飽受傷痛
折磨且進入職棒後表現也遠不如預期。在決定永久轉任牛棚後 Smoker 成功挽救了他的
職棒生涯。擁有一顆可以飆到 mid-90s 的快速直球，其 breaking ball 則是他重要的
第二武器。其球路非常難被擊中(5.68 H/9)，但時常會找不到好球帶 (6.57 BB/9)，這
點必須要加以改進。
(完)
＊＊＊＊＊＊＊
翻得不是很好，請各位見諒。若有錯也麻煩請指正，感謝:)
感想：Purke 的順位比我所想的要低；關於 Hood 的評價遠超出我的意料之外；Norris
未來的發展確實令人擔憂，不過我想應該還不至於如文中所述這麼嚴重，以上。
--
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※ 編輯: s9527206 來自: 59.120.3.52 (12/05 13:26)