[問題] 奪寶機率問題
這次奪寶更新後,ㄧ開始的幸運值是任意數字(實質上幸運值是0),抽第一次後就會更
新,每抽一次加1的幸運值,直到抽中傳說水晶為止,因爲還沒看到有勇者抽完po文,目
前幸運上限值不知到是多少,比較多人說是200,那就先假設上限是200,而且機率線性上
升,就是你每抽1次,可以提升0.5%中傳說水晶的機會。
這時侯問題就來了,假設現在的幸運值是10,一次5抽中獎機會如果是依據幸運值10來說
中傳說水晶的機會就是5%,但如果我把5次分開抽,第1抽5%,第2抽則會變成5.5%,以次
類推到第5抽的時侯機率變成7%,5抽ㄧ次抽跟分開抽就差了5%的機會(0.5+1+1.5+2=5),
抽的組數多了,機率就會有顯著差異。
當然也不排除它在內建機率計算模式就有把這問題考慮進去,或是5抽比較有額外提升機
率,但如以上述觀點不考量人品問題的話,單抽中傳說水晶機率應該比一次5抽高。
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