[情報] 馬刺的暑假作業 Part3

看板Spurs作者ParkerWind (帥氣帕克風!!!)時間11年前 (2013/07/03 13:32)推噓27(27推 0噓 40→)

留言67則, 17人參與討論串1/1

Summer outlook: An all-you-need-to-know guide to the Spurs’ offseason by Matthew Tynan 外電網址: http://ppt.cc/r4H2 我翻太慢了 = = 很多東西過時了我就跳過(EX:選秀方針，簽Diaw與否) How the Spurs can make their biggest splash 馬刺要怎麼激起最大的漣漪呢? As I wrote earlier, the way this team has managed its cap situation is nothing short of brilliant. The Spurs have the capability to bring back nearly the entire group that would likely once again be among the league’s best, but, on the other hand, they’ve put themselves in a position where they can bring significant help to the Alamo City. Hell, at a certain expense, it’s not impossible to free up enough cap space for a maximum contract heading into 2013-14. Though that is quite unlikely. The possibilities are there, but again, it would take great creativity and a high level of risk to pull off a move we’re not exactly accustomed to seeing out of this franchise. 如同我前面所提，馬刺處理薪資狀況已經很老練了。馬刺有能力在下季保持一樣的陣容，並且極有可能仍是聯盟的翹楚，另一方面他們已經在自己的定位為這座城市帶來幫助。天啊!照這樣下去我們騰出個頂級合約的空間不是不可能耶!雖然可能性很低，但真的有可能。但如果真的這樣做肯定是個有創造力但高風險的投資，我們對於馬刺這樣做也會感到不習慣吧。 Sometimes desperate times call for desperate measures, and the Spurs don’t have much time left with their Hall-of-Fame trio. They’ve given themselves the flexibility, so perhaps it’s time to go for it. Maybe through good fortune, health and exceptional improvement from role players they can make yet another run, but it’s a very difficult proposition for a team whose stars are on the brink of retirement. The years take their toll, and without reinforcements San Antonio will be up against it. If the Spurs do intent to take the high-risk, high-reward route, the sequence will soon be initiated. And it all starts with Splitter and Ginobili. 有時候走到窮途末路時，死馬要當活馬醫，而馬刺的準名人堂三人組的所剩時間也不多了。也許透過好運、健康、腳色球員的進步可以再度重返榮耀，但是對於一隻主力球員瀕臨退休的球隊來說這是很困難的。如果馬刺打算採用高風險高回饋的策略，那這程序必須要盡快展開，第一步就是要先搞定 Splitter和Ginobili。 Most of the offseason chatter has been about the narrative surrounding these two players. And while the popular (and conservative) opinion seems to be that San Antonio must re-sign Splitter, that might not be the best course of action. It’s the safest, but likely not the best. As I outlined above, Tiago is a restricted free agent, and his cap hold is worth nearly $7.5 million. In order to clear that hold, the Spurs must re-sign him or let him go. In this high-risk scenario, we’re going to proceed with the latter in mind. In this scenario, we’re going to renounce Splitter’s rights. No qualifying offer. No waiting out the restricted free-agency period. Nothing. 休賽期間的流言一直都圍繞在這兩個球員身上，而普遍(保守)的意見是認為要續簽 Splitter，這是最安全(保守)的決定，但可能不是最好的選擇。Tiago是受限制自由球員 (RFA)，他的行情約有7.5M，馬刺必須決定要續簽他與否。用我的高風險策略來看呢? 一定是要他走。在這策略中我們也不使用QO(優先續約報價) By not signing a qualifying offer, Splitter would immediately become an unrestricted free agent. And by letting him go, the Spurs would waive their Bird rights — or Larry Bird exception — and their ability to exceed the salary cap in order to sign him. Without Splitter’s cap hold and on top of Jackson’s big expiring contract, San Antonio would potentially have the cap space to pursue Tiago in free agency at a later point, but that’s not a road that typically has a happy ending. 既然我們不給QO，Splitter會馬上變成非限制的自由球員(FA)，同時馬刺也釋出了鳥權( 大鳥特例)，也就是放棄續約Splitter的權力。然後我們可以把Splitter當成備胎，雖然這樣做通常不會有快樂的結局。 “Hey Tiago, we’re going to renounce your rights and let you go in free agency. We’re going to use the money we got from your cap hold to pursue another player, but if we’re unsuccessful we’re going to come back to you and pay up after all. Cool? We good? Wanna hang out?” “Hey!Tiago!我們決定放棄續約你的權利讓你成為自由球員。我們打算使用從你那裏得到的薪資空間簽別人，那如果我們失敗了再回來簽你喔!好不好?很酷吧!雙贏耶!” But I digress. There’s more that must happen for this scenario to play out this way, and a ton of it depends on how much money Ginobili takes if he indeed returns for another season. Again, Manu’s cap hold of more than $19 million is crippling until that contractual situation is ironed out, and given his play it’s unlikely he’ll even see half of the $14 million he earned in 2012-13. For argument’s sake, let’s say San Antonio comes to terms with a $5 million deal in the near future (and that might even be generous). Couple that with Jack’s expiring and Splitter’s renounced rights, and the Spurs are looking at a pretty decent chunk of change. 好像離題了，這個策略還有個重點，那就是Ginobili如果續約的話會拿多少錢呢?我想應該是5M左右吧!(也有可能更廉價)，Ginobili的價差加上船長的約到期還有放棄Splitter 的合約，馬刺看起來有大筆薪資可以操作。 If, in addition to these results, San Antonio decides to let Neal and DeJuan Blair go while the rest of the roster’s contract situations stay the same with a predicted salary cap of $58.5 million, the Spurs would be looking at nearly $11 million in cap space. So, to summarize this scenario: ‧ Stephen Jackson (already gone), Tiago Splitter (renounced rights or lost in RFA), Gary Neal (renounced rights or lost in RFA) and DeJuan Blair (not re-signed) are no longer with the Spurs. ‧ Manu Ginobili accepts a contract worth $5 million (total guess) for 2013-14. ‧ San Antonio would have roughly $11 million to spend in free agency, taking $893,500 rookie wage from 28th pick into account. Ah, but it can get better. Crazier, but better. 除此之外，馬刺如果也決定放掉Neal和Blair的話，馬刺將有11M左右的薪資空間，我們整理一下前提: 1.船長(已走遠)+Splitter(放棄RFA續約權)+Neal(放棄RFA續約權)+Blair(不續約)都離開馬刺 2.Manu接受平均每年5M以下的薪資 3.馬刺將有11M左右的薪資空間競爭自由市場，還有89.35W的錢給第一輪新秀呵呵，其實還可以更瘋狂喔。 I described the situations surrounding Diaw and Bonner a bit earlier. They’ re both different in the sense that one is under the team’s control (Bonner) while the other can decide whether or not he wants to spend the next year in San Antonio. Let’s say Diaw picks up the $4.7 million tab the Spurs would owe him (and who could blame the guy?). If San Antonio wants more than the $11 million in cap space to make roster changes, it’s quite conceivable that they part ways with the Red Rocket. It would be so so so sad if this happened, for whatever that’s worth. Because of the good standing Bonner has with this organization, I could see the Spurs using the amnesty clause in this situation. If they simply declined his option, they’d still be on the hook for $1 million, which would count against the cap. If they amnesty him, he’d get his full salary and the total value would be off the books. 我們來聊聊Bonner，他是在球隊掌控之中的，如果馬刺想要更大的薪資空間那麼紅曼巴勢必會犧牲。儘管值得，但如果真的發生了會讓球迷們感到很傷心。如果馬刺決定特赦Bonner，那Bonner還是可以領到錢，但薪資不會計算在馬刺的總薪資空間中。 So, on top of the earlier scenario, if Diaw opted in for the $4.7 million and the Spurs decided to amnesty Bonner, San Antonio would be looking at nearly $15 million in cap space. Again, this would mean (Jack), Splitter, Neal, Blair and Bonner would all be gone. Which would leave the Spurs with 10 active players pre-draft. With that kind of cap space, a rookie draft, the mid-level exception available and the inclusion of veteran minimum contracts, San Antonio wouldn’t have much of a problem filling that roster out. Ten players would be more than enough of a starting point if they want to devote most of that $15 million to one player. 所以，Diaw已用球員選項(PO)4.7M續留再加上馬刺特赦Bonner，加上前面講到的那些狀況，馬刺將有15M的薪資空間。這樣一來馬刺陣中還有10名球員，還有充裕的薪資空間可以用來簽新秀、中產特例、老將底薪，把陣容補滿不是問題。但如果是要用15M簽一個巨星的話，留10個人好像太多了。 But hey, while we’re at it, wanna get a little more crazy? First of all, if Diaw decides to opt out and leave the Spurs with nearly $5 million in extra spending money, well yippidy doo da. If this does happen, I doubt San Antonio would part ways with Bonner. It’d be tough to lose both of those players after also renouncing Splitter’s rights. If Diaw decides to move on and the Spurs keep Bonner, they’d be looking at more than $15 million in cap room. Now, what if Diaw opts in but San Antonio decides it doesn’t want him? NBA contracts are obviously guaranteed, so even waiving the guy wouldn’t make things any better financially. Unless, that is, you take advantage of the loopholes. The collective bargaining agreement allows for what’s called a “stretch provision” for teams that want to cut a player it doesn’t want on its roster. (Geez, the NBA is great. There are so many ways to get out of crappy contracts and relationships with underperforming players, no wonder GMs have been inclined to offer ridiculous money in the first place.) This clause allows for a team to waive a player and stretch his remaining salary over the span of several years. To be exact, said team can take the remaining length of the contract of a waived player, multiply it by two and add a year. It can then spread out its payments evenly over that time span. In the case of Diaw, if the Spurs were to utilize this provision, they’d only have to pay the man $1,567,500 per year over the next three seasons. If they choose to keep Bonner and waive Diaw (probably a slim chance), they’d be looking at a little more than $14 million in cap space. However, if San Antonio wants to part ways with both big men (Bonner via declined team option and Diaw via “stretch provision”), would $18 million below the salary cap and nine players on the pre-draft roster sound good? And what about if the Spurs decline Bonner and Diaw opts out? That would give San Antonio more than $19.5 million in cap space and essentially enough to offer a max contract at worst. Clearly this is pushing the limits of sanity for which the Spurs are so notoriously known, but I do feel we must summarize: ‧ Remember: ‧ Stephen Jackson (already gone), Tiago Splitter (renounced rights or lost in RFA), Gary Neal (renounced rights or lost in RFA) and DeJuan Blair (not re-signed) are no longer with the Spurs. ‧ Manu Ginobili accepts a contract worth $5 million (total guess) for 2013-14. ‧ Rest of roster remains intact ($11 million to spend in free agency) ‧ Diaw opts in for $4.7 million/Spurs amnesty Bonner (just under $15 million in cap space) ‧ Diaw opts out/Spurs exercise team option on Bonner (just over $15 million in cap space) ‧ Spurs use “stretch” provision on Diaw/Spurs exercise team option on Bonner ($14 million) ‧ Diaw opts out/Spurs amnesty Bonner (or waive) ($19.5 million in cap space ($18.5 million)) Manu’s financial situation is key here. I’ve based this whole scenario around the $5 million mark, but that’s a relatively arbitrary number. If he accepts less, that’s huge for San Antonio. But we have no idea how that situation will pan out. Manu的財務狀況很關鍵，我是用5M為基礎，但這樣有點武斷，他願意簽更少對球隊當然好但實際上是如何太難說了。 Again, these are pretty extreme scenarios, but the possibilities are there. San Antonio has left itself with some pretty unbelievable flexibility in terms of what product it can put on the floor for the 2013-14 season. Heading into the offseason with just nine players (draft picks not included) is far from ideal, and it just doesn’t seem plausible to part ways with so many frontcourt players. 這樣是很極端的案例，但可能性是存在的，馬刺將用9個人進入下季(尚未包括新秀)，這樣看來太不真實了，而且怎麼可能把前場球員這樣亂搞。 But when it comes to Splitter, the decision will be an interesting one. This from Spurs General Manager R.C. Buford: “I can’t tell you what the interest in the market is. In principle, nobody is allowed to express interest until July 1. I think we approach every decision we make, here (are) our opportunities with Tiago, here (are) our alternatives, and what are the opportunity costs that go along with either signing and keeping Tiago or facing the alternatives. “He’s been a big part of our success. Until we know what the market says and how that impacts our planning for the future, you can’t answer one with incomplete information. But he’s been a great fit for both our team and our culture. “You guys have seen it. He’s a great team player. He has been a great fit for us, culturally. I think his passing, his movement on the perimeter as a screener and a roller is superior. He’s not at a point where I think that he ’s going to command a double-team in the post, and you’d love to see that develop, but I’m not sure it’s fair to put him in that position. And you’ ve got to evaluate a cost for what that is.” 當提到Splitter，這一切都變得有趣，R.C.Buford說: 我沒辦法告訴你市場的動向，沒有人能在7/1前表態，我想我們正慢慢接近我們做的決策我們會想清楚留不留Splitter的機會成本。他是我們成功的很大一部份，你不能給出不完整的訊息，我們要等到市場的表態，以及對我們未來的衝擊再做決定，但他對我們的球隊和文化帶來很大的幫助。你們看好了，他是個很棒的團隊球員，他文化上一直都很融入我們，他可以傳球、在外圍的移動像是掩護等都做的很好。我認為他不至於強到再進攻端會被雙夾，但我不知道我拿他這樣比較是不是公平的，你們也可以自己評估看看。 Buford provided a great perspective on what Splitter has meant to this franchise, especially over the last year. He’s been important to San Antonio ’s success, not just as an on-court presence, but as an all-important locker-room piece that fits in with the team’s persona. But, at 28 years old, he is what he is. Judging by these quotes, the Spurs don’t seem interested in overpaying for the guy if they believe there are better options out there. One thing I did not outline was the potential for a sign-and-trade, but it’s so difficult to explore any possibilities without knowing who’s interested and what San Antonio could possibly get in return. Buford闡述Splitter對資產的意義，尤其是在過去的一年。他在馬刺是很重要的，他不只是在球場上貢獻，在場下也和隊友相處融洽，他是適合這支球隊的人物。這就是他。馬刺如果找到更好的人選就絕對不會對他overpay。還有一種可能是先簽後換，但是不知道誰對他有興趣，且馬刺也要能接受才行。 There are reports of San Antonio’s interest in Houston Rockets’ forward Thomas Robinson, though we have not heard who the Spurs are dangling. Robinson was a previous Sacramento lottery pick, but he has yet to even come close to proving himself at the NBA level. The potential is theoretically there, but at this point it’s a bit of a crapshoot. He made his mark at the collegiate level as a physical, decently athletic rebounding presence at the forward position, something San Antonio could certainly use in a youthful body. We’ll have to see how this unfolds. 有報導說馬刺隊火箭的Thomas Robinson有興趣，但我們還沒有聽說過馬刺有為此動搖。 Robinson是國王的樂透簽選到的，但他還沒有證明自己能在NBA生存。潛力理論上是有的，但在這一點上，也是有點風險的。他在大學的招牌是出色的體能和運動能力還有很好的籃板能力在前鋒的位置上，馬刺可以有這個機會嘗試年輕的肉體，我們看看會怎麼兌現吧 ! Another aspect of this offseason I did not address to any extent is the draft, but speculation over who the Spurs are interested in and gauging the kind of interest they might have in moving up is nearly impossible with this team given its secretive nature. Still, with an underwhelming draft stock and the potential cost of moving up to a position that would produce a questionably worthwhile bounty would seemingly necessitate action in the free-agent market regardless. San Antonio must win now, and considering what they’d have to give away to make a significant move up in the draft order, the return might not be worth the effort. But who knows? Maybe there’s some interest from outside in Spurs overseas prospects, and perhaps the difference in someone like Danny Green or Tiago Splitter and an overlooked incoming rookie could put this team in a more competitive place. But I doubt it. For a group that wants to win right now, it ’s far more probable that it would be an established player alongside the San Antonio stalwarts that would put the Spurs over the top. Still, San Antonio has worked its magic in the past. It wouldn’t be a shock to see it conjure up yet another trick. Time is running short for the longtime triumvirate of players that has brought so much success spring after spring, summer after summer to this town. As Duncan, Parker and Ginobili near the finish line, the chances at another title grow slimmer and slimmer. They need help, and if the Spurs decide to bring most everyone back, they’ll have access to mid-level players (and depending on their final cap situation, several million dollars in mid-level exception money) and veterans looking to possibly ride with Timmy for one last run. But with what potentially exists in free agency, due diligence would benefit San Antonio during this pivotal moment. 馬刺的三巨頭為這個小鎮帶來了許多成就，春去春又來，花謝花又開，但他們的時間不多了，能衝擊總冠軍的機會似乎也越來越渺茫。他們需要幫助，如果馬刺決定保持上季的陣容把大多數人留下來，他們將有機會簽下一個中產階級等級的球員和一個願意和Duncan一起打拼的老將。在自由球員市場可能存在著遺珠，在這關鍵的時刻馬刺需要積極的挖掘。 With players like Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson, Andre Iguodala and Josh Smith (and the pie-in-the-sky possibility of Dwight Howard) looming on the market, The Spurs might be tempted to take a risk in order to cement one last hurrah. They’ll be competitive either way, but as the league grows more dangerously youthful by the moment, the likelihood of replicating last season’s success is dwindling. 這些球員像是Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson, Andre Iguodala 和 Josh Smith (還有幾乎不可能的 Dwight Howard)，馬刺可以賭一把。馬刺還是很有競爭力的，但隨著後起之輩崛起，馬刺要複製上季的模式是越來越難了。 The Spurs are rumored to have made a promise to Virginia Tech guard Erick Green, the leading scorer in the NCAA who’s great at pushing the pace in transition. Tough to say at this point, but he’s the type of guy that could give this team the extra boost it needs behind the overloaded Parker in the backcourt. But again, rookies, especially in this draft, are far from a sure thing. If San Antonio takes a swing at it but strikes out, at least they know, with a little good luck they could be right there at the top once again. And if ever there’s a team capable of defying odds and taking advantage of opportunities the rest of the league may afford it, it’s this one. But if they take a high-risk chance in search of the ultimate reward, and the Spurs connect? Well, last week’s fall in Miami may not have been San Antonio ’s final stand. Update: The Spurs drafted Livio Jean-Charles with the 28th overall pick in last night’s draft. LJC (as I’m going to be calling him) is from Cayenne, French Guiana and is currently playing for L’ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne, the team Tony Parker has stake in. He’ll likely remain overseas, but when it comes to signing the guy, it’s going to help that Parker is one of the team’ s owners. In the mean time, his nearly $900K cap hold for a rookie contract from the 28th pick is now lifted, giving the Spurs a little extra money to operate in free agency. 更新:馬刺第28順位新秀Livio Jean-Charles目前待的球隊老闆是Tony Parker。他很可能先在海外磨練，等時候到了再來跟他老闆一起打球。正因為他還不會來所以馬刺也多了900K左右的薪資空間可操作。 Another rumor from last night — one that was actually reported by the New York Daily News — was that Brett Brown was hired as Philadelphia’s new head coach. R.C. Buford said after the draft that folks were jumping the gun on this, and it turns out he was right. As of right now, Brown has not been hired by anyone, but is still very much active in the interview process. 昨晚的另一則謠言(還真的刊登在紐約日報):馬刺助理教練Brent Brown接任七六人總教練。Buford說那是煙霧彈，事實證明他是對的。目前Brown還沒被任何一隊聘僱，但他還是在採訪活動中表現活躍。 -- ◢███◣ █◥◥◥ 我們不是搖擺不定 ◢● ● 我們只是還在找尋平衡點 ╭╮ ◣ ▽ ◢ ╯╰︵◣天秤 ◢ ＬＩＢＲＡ ψQSWEET ￣￣ ▂▂ 　　　　　　　 Libra <天秤版> -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 111.253.237.182 ※ 編輯: ParkerWind 來自: 111.253.237.182 (07/03 13:32)

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