[心得] 低點恐未見到,小心已回收
盤面短線雖然跌幅已深,但現在絕對不是可以大跌大買,小跌小買的時機,
如果打開線圖,季線與半年線即將死亡交叉,年線甚至是用跳空跌破,
週一的跳空長黑更在週K線上形成缺口,就連月KD都交叉往下,
這個盤可以說不只是短線,中線的問題而已,甚至連長線趨勢都發生了很大變數
近期外資在現貨,期權都是偏空,淨空單到現在一直不見減少,
外加美盤持續震盪往下,經濟警訊開始不斷傳出,vix更是破了20,
代表市場的恐慌度大為升高,一般來說,破了20,
常意味著還會再跌一段,當今不論經濟面,技術面與籌碼面都被空方主控,
難有讓台股有立即反轉往上的條件下,
投資人需提防行情隨時有再跌一段的可能性.
至於這個盤會跌到那裡? 以目前空方強勢下很難去有效判斷,
只能由一些點去評估,比方說跌停家數是否大幅增加?
且出現盤中量出大跌殺低,代表融資斷頭賣壓開始斷出來了,
通常斷出融資後,行情會有機會強彈,另一個方向則是觀察是否留下帶量長下影線,
(最好是紅k下影線),這也是止穩的情況之一,此時只能用少量資金
去搶超跌的績優龍頭股,空頭的反彈多是強彈,但也多一日行情,
反彈後量如不出,應盡快把握賣點.
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