[情報] TCFA-92W

看板TY_Research作者 (小多啦)時間13年前 (2011/07/14 14:24), 編輯推噓103(103推 0噓 87→)
留言190則, 40人參與, 最新討論串1/1
JTWC剛剛發布92W的TCFA了 看來有機會形成TD-09W 說好的藤原校應呢XD http://ppt.cc/HC!d ----------------------------------------------- FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS OF 14.1N 133.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 140600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 133.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER AN INCREASINGLY MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 140426Z AMSU IMAGE AND A 132321Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOW SPIRAL LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH A MAJORITY OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN BANDS. A 140040Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF HIGHLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (<15 KNOTS). CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY IS TEMPORARILY HINDERED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND A HIGHLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 114.41.19.122
推
07/14 14:25, , 1F
推 這關係實在太微妙了!
07/14 14:25, 1F
推
07/14 14:25, , 2F
這下就看各家怎把92W的影響算進去了
07/14 14:25, 2F
推
07/14 14:27, , 3F
問題是怕還沒升就Cancel了XD
07/14 14:27, 3F
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07/14 14:28, , 4F
中心定在14.1N 133.0E
07/14 14:28, 4F
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07/14 14:29, , 5F
今天開始08W好像受到乾空氣入侵的關係 強度有點停滯
07/14 14:29, 5F
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07/14 14:29, , 6F
搞不好08W會比預期還要弱一些 相對地92W比預期強一些
07/14 14:29, 6F
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07/14 14:29, , 7F
然後就看看兩者會不會互旋囉XD
07/14 14:29, 7F
推
07/14 14:29, , 8F
就ADT來看是這樣的...
07/14 14:29, 8F
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07/14 14:30, , 9F
我是指強度停滯
07/14 14:30, 9F
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07/14 14:30, , 10F
PGTW 14時分析 08W T值維持5.0 下午強度可能維持90KT
07/14 14:30, 10F
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07/14 14:30, , 11F
現在反而要希望08W不要太強囉...
07/14 14:30, 11F
推
07/14 14:32, , 12F
不知道92W有沒有機會被JMA標上GW...如果標了的話XD
07/14 14:32, 12F
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07/14 14:33, , 13F
我覺得TD是快達標了沒錯 早上掃描就有掃出15-20KTS的
07/14 14:33, 13F
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07/14 14:33, , 14F
風力 但是應該還沒達到GW水準 要30KTS
07/14 14:33, 14F
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07/14 14:33, , 15F
搞不好92W最後以25KTS封頂
07/14 14:33, 15F
推
07/14 14:35, , 16F
92w表示:我的未來不是夢XD
07/14 14:35, 16F
推
07/14 14:35, , 17F
接下來要看機構的態度如何了 會不會修呢?
07/14 14:35, 17F
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07/14 14:38, , 18F
距離08W帶來的強風切區到來 最多還有一天的時間
07/14 14:38, 18F
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07/14 14:39, , 19F
就看92W能不能加緊利用這一天混個TD編號出來
07/14 14:39, 19F
推
07/14 14:41, , 20F
CWB的預測圖中已經是個TD?
07/14 14:41, 20F
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07/14 14:41, , 21F
而且08W尾巴那邊的渦度也加深不少 要是真的發展起來
07/14 14:41, 21F
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07/14 14:42, , 22F
勢必會讓08W路徑比預期偏南一些
07/14 14:42, 22F
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07/14 14:43, , 23F
CWB和JMA的TD標準比較寬鬆 JTWC的TD則是要風力達到25
07/14 14:43, 23F
推
07/14 14:43, , 24F
不知道近幾年來..台灣附近有發生過藤原效應嗎?
07/14 14:43, 24F
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07/14 14:43, , 25F
KTS以上 才有國際編號
07/14 14:43, 25F
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07/14 14:43, , 26F
有拉 去年南修不就是了
07/14 14:43, 26F
推
07/14 14:44, , 27F
馬媽媽帶小寶寶XD,不過這小寶寶可能會親手被媽媽殺死
07/14 14:44, 27F
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07/14 14:45, , 28F
...馬鞍的強度比92W強上許多,不過確實可以觀察兩者的
07/14 14:45, 28F
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07/14 14:45, , 29F
互動...
07/14 14:45, 29F
推
07/14 14:46, , 30F
92W還是楚於半裸奔狀態，明天可能就全裸朝馬鞍奔去
07/14 14:46, 30F
推
07/14 14:46, , 31F
08W與92W 和08W與自己東南尾的互動 都會影響路徑
07/14 14:46, 31F
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07/14 14:47, , 32F
但最主要影響馬鞍路徑的是副高,副高若後期如預測的被
07/14 14:47, 32F
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07/14 14:48, , 33F
08W和92W的關係是 92W愈強 兩者並以合併方式靠近的話
07/14 14:48, 33F
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07/14 14:48, , 34F
打擊崩潰,馬鞍勢必會如期北轉,只是現在92W的出現,影
07/14 14:48, 34F
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07/14 14:48, , 35F
08W就會愈偏西
07/14 14:48, 35F
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07/14 14:48, , 36F
響著轉向點...
07/14 14:48, 36F
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07/14 14:48, , 37F
08W和08W尾的關係是 08W尾愈強 兩者以互旋但不合併
07/14 14:48, 37F
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07/14 14:49, , 38F
的方式 就會讓08W偏南 但是如果兩者是合併的話
07/14 14:49, 38F
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07/14 14:49, , 39F
反而會讓08W偏東 因為合併是會往質心調整
07/14 14:49, 39F
還有 111 則推文
還有 1 段內文
推
07/14 20:09, , 151F
從新竹那一帶飄來台北的雷雨胞挺猛的...
07/14 20:09, 151F
推
07/14 20:11, , 152F
對數狗大在論壇上又在探討一個老問題了XD
07/14 20:11, 152F
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07/14 20:11, , 153F
土城暴雨ing
07/14 20:11, 153F
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07/14 20:12, , 154F
92W目前是夾縫裡求生存 如果撐到TD就算很強了
07/14 20:12, 154F
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07/14 20:12, , 155F
風切包夾 被併吞的壓力...92W能不能撐住也是關鍵
07/14 20:12, 155F
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07/14 20:15, , 156F
台北剛剛一小時壓變3hPa
07/14 20:15, 156F
推
07/14 20:16, , 157F
UKM的數值是無視高壓嗎XD 一路向西不轉的喔XD
07/14 20:16, 157F
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07/14 20:20, , 158F
咦,UKM最新的數值出來了嗎?
07/14 20:20, 158F
推
07/14 20:20, , 159F
看CIMSS的 NCEP那網頁還沒出來<<<<06時的UKM
07/14 20:20, 159F
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07/14 20:22, , 160F
5.9 / 942.2mb/112.4kt 還在飆~
07/14 20:22, 160F
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07/14 20:22, , 161F
a大能提供一下網址嗎?NCEP的還沒出來,感謝
07/14 20:22, 161F
推
07/14 20:24, , 162F
ukmet似乎是00Z 12Z發報的
07/14 20:24, 162F
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07/14 20:24, , 163F
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/ 選颱風後點Dynamical
07/14 20:24, 163F
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07/14 20:25, , 164F
問題是 UKM的00時在NCEP網頁也沒出來...
07/14 20:25, 164F
推
07/14 20:27, , 165F
http://tinyurl.com/6zgz3hr 官方的報文...
07/14 20:27, 165F
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07/14 20:27, , 166F
要看06Z 18Z可能只能在cimss看了
07/14 20:27, 166F
推
07/14 20:33, , 167F
08W北上後，如果把南海那片帶上來，那雨也會很可觀吧
07/14 20:33, 167F
推
07/14 20:41, , 168F
的確 而且北轉點也會影響西南氣流帶進來的程度
07/14 20:41, 168F
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07/14 20:41, , 169F
我在想 等南海的狀況再好點 說不定會有擾動生成
07/14 20:41, 169F
推
07/14 20:56, , 170F
這樣的颱風 西南氣流是很可能會被帶上來嗎?
07/14 20:56, 170F
推
07/14 21:06, , 171F
看卡大之前的說法 很有可能
07/14 21:06, 171F
推
07/14 21:29, , 172F
如果到快125E才轉 那西南氣流就要小心
07/14 21:29, 172F
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07/14 21:30, , 173F
130E以東轉就還好
07/14 21:30, 173F
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07/14 21:38, , 174F
歸仁又噴了～夜市......
07/14 21:38, 174F
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07/14 22:07, , 175F
去不成啦XD
07/14 22:07, 175F
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07/14 22:34, , 176F
杯子的水不准溢出來
07/14 22:34, 176F
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07/14 22:44, , 177F
JTWC第13報 封頂強度130Kts 現在95Kts
07/14 22:44, 177F
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07/14 22:54, , 178F
原先封頂135，略微下修了點 @@
07/14 22:54, 178F
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07/15 00:16, , 179F
JMA天氣圖之高壓有點強?
07/15 00:16, 179F
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07/15 00:16, , 180F
更正 是KMA
07/15 00:16, 180F
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07/15 00:18, , 181F
KMA500hPa天氣圖
07/15 00:18, 181F
推
07/15 00:27, , 182F
5.9 / 941.2mb/112.4kt 卡一陣子了
07/15 00:27, 182F
推
07/15 00:49, , 183F
CWB高解析雲圖一張~ http://i.imgur.com/iqJlY.jpg
07/15 00:49, 183F
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07/15 00:54, , 184F
感覺有被高壓稍微南壓的feel!但JMA0時的有北偏量出現
07/15 00:54, 184F
推
07/15 01:19, , 185F
近幾個小時都還是正西..倒是前方的冷低似乎消失了?
07/15 01:19, 185F
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07/15 01:22, , 186F
高壓感覺一直有比較強.. 另外..92W又裸奔了..
07/15 01:22, 186F
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07/15 01:25, , 187F
爆!進入08周圍的強風切區了!可能有點難發展~準備吸收
07/15 01:25, 187F
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07/15 01:26, , 188F
爆
07/15 01:26, 188F
推
07/15 01:42, , 189F
看起來高壓沒有想像中的弱很多
07/15 01:42, 189F
推
07/15 01:53, , 190F
KMA天氣圖蠻符合馬鞍過去走的路徑
07/15 01:53, 190F
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