Re: [新聞] 看總統大選《經濟學人》：蔡英文就是蔡英文消失

看板Gossiping作者buichcmu時間8年前 (2016/01/09 14:57)推噓3(3推 0噓 7→)

留言10則, 4人參與討論串2/2 (看更多)

※ 引述《d59203z (笑一個嘛)》之銘言： : 1.媒體來源:自由時報 : 2.完整新聞標題: : 看總統大選《經濟學人》：蔡英文就是蔡英文 : 3.完整新聞內文: : 〔即時新聞／綜合報導〕隨著2016總統大選投票日即將來臨，各黨的競選活動也更加熱絡 : ，今下午《經濟學人》（The Economist）則在網站上發表一則「蔡英文就是蔡英文（A : Tsai is just a Tsai）」為題的文章，內容談及蔡英文目前雖情勢大好，有機會在取得 : 國會足夠的支持下穩健推動改革，但若未來上台仍將面臨挑戰，特別是在有關兩岸局勢的 : 議題上。 : 《經濟學人》在這篇文章指出，馬政府在過去幾年來雖致力推動兩岸交流，簽署了不少協 : 議，去年馬英九更與中國領導人習近平在新加坡會面，但嘗試和平統一的執政方向並未能 : 獲得認同，且在經濟民生問題上，如工資停滯不前、青年失業、房價高漲等也都成為國民 : 黨的痛腳。文章也提及，在這次大選的總統人選上，許多藍營大老因擔心失敗而拒絕投入 : 競選，部分支持洪秀柱的藍營選民更一度發起「總統秀柱不參選，立委投票就棄權」的活 : 動。 : 《經濟學人》分析，在藍營衰落以及經濟、民意等問題背景下，蔡英文目前情勢看好，且 : 她有別於前總統陳水扁，低調謹慎的蔡英文曾在國外接受法律教育，並取得政治經濟學院 : 法學博士，有國際貿易的專長，她也主張台灣應透過NGO（非政府組織）擴展台灣的軟實 : 力，且民進黨很有機會在未來變成國會多數黨，應會比陳水扁執政時期來得更加穩定。 : 該文也用副標題寫道，「傾向獨立的新總統將讓台灣重回國際的鎂光燈焦點」（The : election of an independence-leaning president would put Taiwan back in the : international spotlight），並在文中指出，雖然台灣的年輕一代多認同自己就是台灣 : 人，但蔡英文未來若執政，也將面臨兩岸問題，隨著過去8年的台海休兵即將結束，蔡英 : 文除在黨內可能須處理要求獨立的聲音，更會面臨來自中國的壓力，因為中國的軍方勢力 : 可能會促使習近平要對台施壓。文章也針對南海議題分析，若台灣太拙於應對，中國將可 : 輕易採取攻勢（take offense）。 : 4.完整新聞連結 (或短網址): : http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/1565954 : 5.備註: : A Tsai is just a Tsai. : A Ma is just a Bumbler. 沒事做來翻一下原文騙騙P幣原文傳送門:http://tinyurl.com/zetdc3c UNDETERRED by the rain, the crowd leaps to its feet shouting “We’re going to win” in Taiwanese as their presidential candidate, Tsai Ing-wen, begins her stump speech. Some rattle piggy banks to show that their party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), relies on, and serves, the little guy—as opposed to the ruling Kuomintang (KMT), backed by businesses and fat cats and one of the world’s richest political institutions. Taiwan’s voters go to the polls on January 16th in what is likely to prove a momentous election both for the domestic politics on the island and for its relations with the Communist government in China that claims sovereignty over it. Eight years of uneasy truce across the Taiwan Strait are coming to an end. 無懼於老天的不賞臉大批民眾用台語大聲喊著"我們要贏了"當總統候選人蔡英文正要開始她的談話噹噹作響的小豬顯示著他們的政黨DPP是倚賴著也是服務著市井小民相對於執政黨KMT 一個世界上最有錢的政治組織背後的大財團還有肥貓台灣的選民即將在1/16舉行一個不僅是對國內政治生態還有與中國關係都意義重大的選舉八年充滿不安還有焦慮的海峽兩岸停戰期終於要畫下句點 Since taking office in 2008, the outgoing president, Ma Ying-jeou, has engineered the deepest rapprochement between Taiwan and China ever seen, signing an unprecedented 23 pacts with the mainland, including a partial free-trade agreement. It culminated in an unprecedented meeting in November between Mr Ma and Xi Jinping, China’s president, in Singapore. But if the rapprochement under Mr Ma was a test of whether closer ties would help China’ s long-term goal of peaceful unification, it failed. For the past six months Ms Tsai, whose party leans towards formal independence for Taiwan, has been miles ahead in the polls, with the support of 40-45% of voters. The KMT’s Eric Chu has 20-25% and another candidate, James Soong, a former KMT heavyweight, about 15%. Taiwanese polls can be unreliable, and many voters are undecided. But if Mr Chu were to win, it would be a shock. 自從2008年執政以來總統馬英九深深地拉近了台灣與中國的距離史無前例地與中國簽下了23項協議包含著部份的自由貿易協定因此也營造了史無前例的兩岸領導人會面但是如果馬英九是想透過這些措施來測試緊密的兩岸關係是否會幫助中國達到終極統一的目的他失敗了在過去半年以來蔡英文領導的促進台灣正式獨立的政黨一直以遙遙領先對手Julie倫和宋神掌一個前國民黨的大咖雖然很多選民還沒下決定但是如果Julie倫上了將會讓人很吃驚 Taiwan elects its parliament, the Legislative Yuan, on the same day. That race is closer. But the DPP’s secretary-general, Joseph Wu, thinks his party can win it too, either outright or in coalition with two smaller parties—and the polls suggest he may be right. If so, it would be the first time any party other than the KMT has controlled the country’s legislature since the KMT fled to the island at the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949. 台灣也要在同一天選出他們下一屆的國會這將會是一場激戰但是DPP的秘書長吳釗燮覺得DPP勝算頗高不論是單獨過半或者與其他2個小黨聯合而且民調數字也支持他的說法如果成真了這將會是在1949年國民黨逃來台灣之後除了KMT之外第一次有政黨能掌控國會 The election result will have regional consequences, but the campaign itself is being fought on livelihood issues. The economy appears to have grown by only 1% in 2015, less than in 2014. Taiwan is doing worse than other export-oriented Asian economies such as South Korea. Salaries are stagnant, youth unemployment is up and home ownership is beyond the reach of many. One study found that the capital, Taipei, has become one of the world’s costliest cities relative to income, with the ratio of median house prices to median household income rising from 8.9 in 2005 to 15.7 in 2014—nearly twice the level of London. Concerns like these have dented the KMT’s reputation for economic competence. 這次的選舉結果也會對區域帶來影響雖然這次主打的訴求是生計台灣2015年的經濟成長率不到1% 甚至比2014年還糟台灣也比其他出口導向的經濟體例如南韓表現更差薪水停滯青年失業率升高許多人買不起房一個研究顯示首都台北如果按照收入來看更成為了世界上最貴的城市房價所得比從2005年的8.9升至2014年的15.7 將近是倫敦的2倍這些也重創了國民黨會拚經濟的形象 Self-inflicted wounds have not helped either. Most of the KMT’s bigwigs refused to run for president, fearing defeat. So its chairman, Eric Chu, put forward Hung Hsiu-chu, whose pro-China views proved so extreme that they nearly split the party. Mr Chu ditched her just months before the poll and ran for president himself. Ms Hung’s backers, many of them old-guard KMT voters, may abstain in protest. The party which for decades has dominated politics faces humiliation. KMT的內鬥也推了一把大部分KMT的大咖都不願意參選這次的總統因此Julie倫只好推出了極度傾中甚至差點就撕裂整個黨的條子姐 Julie倫在大選的前幾個月終於決定自己來把條子姐趕下台但是很多9.2非常的不滿甚至揚言不去投票這個主宰台灣政治數十年的政黨也因此蒙羞 That would have profound implications for China. For years, the Chinese Communist Party’s policy towards Taiwan has been based on patience and economic integration. But the election campaign suggests that integration is a liability and that time may not be on China’s side. In 1992, according to the Election Studies Centre at National Chengchi University in Taipei, 18% of respondents identified themselves as Taiwanese only. A further 46% thought of themselves as both Taiwanese and Chinese. Today 59% call themselves Taiwanese, while 34% identify as both—ie, very few consider themselves Chinese first and foremost. 這場大選將會對台灣帶來深遠的影響在過去幾年阿共對台灣的政策都是採用柔攻還有經濟侵略但是這次大選顯示著經濟侵略是越來越不可行的而且時間也不站在中國這邊在1992年的調查只有18%的民眾認為自已是台灣人而有46%認為他們是台灣人也是中國人但現在有59%稱她們自己是台灣人而只有34%覺得他們兩個都是而覺得他們自己是中國人的已經非常少了 Among 20- to 29-year-olds, three-quarters think of themselves as Taiwanese. For them China is a foreign country, and the political ripples of this change are now being felt. In early 2014 students occupied parliament for three weeks in a protest against a proposed services deal with China. This proved to be a turning point: the KMT went on to be thrashed in municipal elections in late 2014. Some of the student leaders have formed their own party to contest the legislative election, joining 17 other groups and 556 candidates, who range from a heavy-metal front man to a former triad crime boss. 在20-29歲裡面大概有4分之3覺得他們是台灣人對他們來說中國就是外國而這也對這次大選帶來影響 2014年初學生就為了抗議服貿而佔領了立法院而這也預告了1129國民黨的大敗許多學生領袖也在這次投入立委選舉與17個不同政黨的556個候選人競爭這些候選人從重金屬搖滾明星到前幫派老大都有 The last time Taiwan chose a DPP president, Chen Shui-bian, in 2000, cross-strait tensions escalated. Given China’s increasing assertiveness in the region under Mr Xi, things could be even more dangerous now. China has been piling pressure on Ms Tsai. Mr Xi says he wants a “final resolution” of differences over Taiwan, adding that this is not something to leave for the next generation. China is demanding that Ms Tsai approve the “1992 consensus”, a formula by which China and the KMT agreed there was only one China—but disagreed about what that meant in practice. Ms Tsai has long said no such consensus exists, though when asked about it in a presidential debate, she called it “one option”. 在2000年的時候台灣選擇了阿扁也因此升高了台海對立的情勢在習大大對區域的強硬作風下事情只可能更大條中國一直對蔡英文施壓習大大說希望在這一代能對台海問題解決中國也一直要求蔡英文承認92共識也就是一中各表但是蔡英文一直說沒有這種東西存在在辯論中被問了也只說那是一個選項 Ms Tsai is a very different figure from Mr Chen, who delighted in provoking China (and was later jailed for corruption). She is a low-key, English-educated lawyer schooled in international trade rather than in the rhetoric of Taiwanese nationalism. She has gone out of her way to assure China and America, Taiwan’s guarantor, that she backs the status quo and will be cautious. Many of her proposals, such as that Taiwan should expand its soft power through non-governmental organisations, seem designed to be uncontroversial. If her party takes control of the legislature, that would remove a source of instability: conflict with lawmakers made Mr Chen’s presidency even more unpredictable than it otherwise would have been. 相對於阿扁喜歡激怒中國的作風蔡英文是非常不一樣的她是一個低調受過英文教育的律師她的專長是國際貿易而沒有受到台灣國族主義的感染她用她自己的方式來承諾美國和中國她要小心地維持現狀在她的政見之中例如台灣應該要用NGO擴充軟實力也看起來計畫的沒什麼爭議如果DPP掌控國會將會去除不穩定的因素在阿扁時代的府院衝突讓阿扁的作風更難以預測 Yet whatever Ms Tsai’s intentions, a lot could go wrong. Taiwanese politics is famously raucous, and the DPP’s radicals seeking formal independence might yet cause problems. Mr Xi, in turn, could come under pressure from military diehards arguing that China has been too patient. In one of the last foreign-policy vestiges of the “one China” idea, China and Taiwan have similar claims in the South China Sea, a nerve-racking part of the globe. If a new government in Taiwan starts tinkering with its stance on the sea, China might easily take offence. The election of an independence-leaning president comes at a dangerous moment. 但是不管蔡英文想幹嘛有些事情還是會出差錯台灣的政治環境是有名的吵雜而DPP裡的急獨勢力也可能造成問題習大大也會受到解放軍高層的催促說他太軟弱了在一中的架構下台灣和中國都對南海這個情勢緊張的地方宣示主權如果台灣的新政府對南海的態度想變花樣中國有可能會採取攻勢選出一個偏向獨立的總統會是一個危險的情勢 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 根本KMT拉票文嘛經濟學人我真不懂你 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 103.252.202.36 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Gossiping/M.1452322659.A.35C.html

→

joe0ee9

01/09 15:23, , 1^F

01/09 15:23, 1^F

推

luvfilm

01/09 16:38, , 2^F

01/09 16:38, 2^F

→

luvfilm

01/09 16:40, , 3^F

01/09 16:40, 3^F