Re: [理工] 機率問題

看板Grad-ProbAsk作者jasonkeen (Nothing but Net)時間15年前 (2009/04/06 04:08)推噓2(2推 0噓 1→)

留言3則, 3人參與討論串2/8 (看更多)

※ 引述《brucejune (...)》之銘言： A judge is 65% sure that a suspect has committed a crime. P(A)=0.65 P(B)=0.35 A,B 為補集合 During the course of the trial a witness convinces the judge that there is an 85% chance that the criminal is left-handed. P(L|A)=0.85 If 23% of the population is left-handed and the suspect is also left-handed, with this new information, how certain should the judge be of the guilt of the suspect? P(L)=0.23 P(A|L)=P(L|A)*P(A)/( P(L|A)*P(A) + P(L|B)*P(B) ) =0.85*0.65/(0.85*0.65+0.23*0.35)=0.873 -- 可能我想的太簡單了，沒記錯的話這題20分，有錯請指正… -- Artists use lies to tell the truth, while politicians use them to cover the truth up. V for Vendetta - V怪客 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.114.34.182

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Jautism

04/06 17:54, , 1^F

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jasonkeen

04/06 18:13, , 2^F

04/06 18:13, 2^F

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brucejune

04/06 22:58, , 3^F

04/06 22:58, 3^F