[討論] 柯文哲2036會選上總統
看到今天高中生模擬投票有感
以下超級粗估
依照今天高中生模擬投票
有六成投給柯文哲
今年首投族103萬
所以
粗估下屆首投族給柯文哲60萬票
下屆首投族給賴20萬票
柯每屆能縮小差距40萬票
然後民國111年死亡20萬人
其中九成是65歲以上
假設、粗估老人票都是民進黨的
所以每年民進黨少18萬票
每次總統選舉少72萬票
所以超級粗估的情況下
柯每次選總統
柯會縮小差距=40+70=110萬票
依據2024各家民調
賴2024約 580萬票
柯2024約 290萬票
本屆票數相差290萬票
也就是說2036的時候
柯文哲每屆縮小差距的票累積
會超過和民進黨的差距
110x3=330>290
不管你喜不喜歡柯
恐怕要有心理準備
2036年柯文哲會當選總統
以上超級粗估,各位覺得有沒有道理?
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