Re: [閒聊] 哪一隊投手群獲得了最友善的好球帶?
我應該不會有下一篇了,抱歉佔用一下版面,有些疑惑想知道,討論看看吧
我利用這篇 #1PXjZ0SR (MLB) 的算法算了投手的部份
先說明一下代號
PF = 投手偷到的好球數量
PF1k = (PF/Pits)*1000 = 該投手每投1000球多得的好球數量 (放大數字好看用)
MLBPF1k = MLB該年度所有投手投千球的偷好球數量 (我認為是裁判影響的)
PF1k+ = PF1k - MLBPF1k = 該投手每投千球比聯盟平均多偷多少 (扣除裁判影響)
(負愈多愈慘)
(我知道我單純這樣扣太簡略,但是不扣掉MLBPF1k實在很怪)
整個聯盟的平均算法在這邊,我就不列了,有興趣自己看
http://imgur.com/a/bbjwU
先按照pujos大的建議,先算紅鳥的投手陣容,希望減少補手的影響
(感謝莫小弟耐操又健康,除了14年110場外每年都至少130場)
看看今年紅鳥輪值的數據吧
Carlos Martinez
Season Pitches PF PF1k MLBPF1k PF1k+ 備註
2013 475 1.27 2.66 24.00 -21 STL
2014 1379 12.60 9.14 25.51 -16 STL
2015 2844 48.08 16.90 23.37 -6 STL
2016 3028 46.84 15.47 21.65 -6 STL
2017 2135 61.22 28.67 21.02 8 STL
Lance Lynn
Season Pitches PF PF1k MLBPF1k PF1k+ 備註
2011 563 11.88 21.11 20.49 1 STL
2012 3002 116.11 38.68 22.05 17 STL
2013 3351 132.65 39.59 24.00 16 STL
2014 3450 92.99 26.95 25.51 1 STL
2015 3053 121.56 39.82 23.37 16 STL
2017 2250 71.82 31.92 21.02 11 STL
Adam Wainwright
Season Pitches PF PF1k MLBPF1k PF1k+ 備註
2006 1194 -4.68 -3.92 -4.10 0 STL
2007 3175 -9.07 -2.86 -3.70 1 STL
2008 1951 -3.35 -1.72 -2.77 1 STL
2009 3614 47.59 13.17 11.41 2 STL
2010 3356 71.07 21.18 17.05 4 STL
2012 3091 94.93 30.71 22.05 9 STL
2013 3533 113.76 32.20 24.00 8 STL
2014 3258 98.53 30.24 25.51 5 STL
2015 383 11.09 28.95 23.37 6 STL
2016 3195 104.67 32.76 21.65 11 STL
2017 1992 60.47 30.35 21.02 9 STL
Michael Wacha
Season Pitches PF PF1k MLBPF1k PF1k+ 備註
2013 1034 39.96 38.65 24.00 15 STL
2014 1694 40.86 24.12 25.51 -1 STL
2015 2937 24.41 8.31 23.37 -15 STL
2016 2324 22.18 9.54 21.65 -12 STL
2017 1814 32.11 17.70 21.02 -3 STL
這四個投手幾乎所有的主要年份都被莫小弟給涵蓋了
可以看到Michael Wacha、Carlos Martinez的PF1k+ 偏負的居多
Lance Lynn跟Wainny則是正值居多
如果用這點來看莫小弟的Framing似乎是剛好有好有壞,正負相消
由於這四個投手都是純正的紅鳥血統,所以最後一個FA來的Mike Leake長怎樣呢??
Mike Leake
Season Pitches PF PF1k MLBPF1k PF1k+ 備註
2010 2131 65.75 30.85 17.05 14 CIN
2011 2552 77.68 30.44 20.49 10 CIN
2012 2714 123.19 45.39 22.05 23 CIN
2013 2911 74.92 25.74 24.00 2 CIN
2014 3215 115.63 35.97 25.51 10 CIN
2015 2754 130.43 47.36 23.37 24 CIN-SFG
2016 2659 115.02 43.26 21.65 22 STL
2017 2001 50.95 25.46 21.02 4 STL
可以看到Mike Leake轉隊過,但是PF1k+ 卻沒太大的改變
所以,捕手對於投手的偷好球能力會有多少的幫助呢??
(我當然不是說捕手沒功用,而是占的影響力有多少)
再來就是裁判的影響力
我從ShaShoukun大的建議中發現從09~11年這三年經歷了好球帶的放大
光是主審的因素就能穩定地影響PF1k 20~30球的空間
反觀投手+捕手遮騰半天,能夠每千球多偷到10~20顆好球就很厲害了
換算成一個SP先發一場100球,也才1~2顆好球的判決而已(而且這是能力強的投捕搭擋)
RP的部分影響就更小了
再來就是投手的影響力
我發現投手可以大至上分為三種趨勢
1.裁判群就是會多給好球(以Lester跟Z魔神為代表)
Jon Lester
Season Pitches PF PF1k MLBPF1k PF1k+ 備註
2006 1507 0.31 0.21 -4.10 4 BOS
2007 1083 1.67 1.55 -3.70 5 BOS
2008 3309 3.30 1.00 -2.77 4 BOS
2009 3404 40.79 11.98 11.41 1 BOS
2010 3357 72.42 21.57 17.05 5 CYA-4 BOS
2011 3192 110.08 34.49 20.49 14 BOS
2012 3424 139.97 40.88 22.05 19 BOS
2013 3559 105.11 29.53 24.00 6 BOS
2014 3493 133.54 38.23 25.51 13 CYA-4 Two-Team
2015 3185 158.86 49.88 23.37 27 Cubs
2016 3161 124.13 39.27 21.65 18 CYA-2 Cubs
2017 2401 70.86 29.51 21.02 8 Cubs
Zack Greinke
Season Pitches PF PF1k MLBPF1k PF1k+ 備註
2004 2282 30.01 13.15 8.23 5 ROY-4 KC
2005 3091 11.84 3.83 1.08 3 KC
2007 2083 -13.50 -6.48 -3.70 -3 KC
2008 3227 2.61 0.81 -2.77 4 KC
2009 3477 81.18 23.35 11.41 12 CYA KC
2010 3445 65.51 19.02 17.05 2 KC
2011 2841 140.36 49.40 20.49 29 MIL
2012 3383 142.14 42.02 22.05 20 Two Team
2013 2814 98.62 35.05 24.00 11 CYA-8 LAD
2014 3210 64.88 20.21 25.51 -5 CYA-7 LAD
2015 3239 137.41 42.42 23.37 19 CYA-2 LAD
2016 2503 68.59 27.40 21.65 6 ARI
2017 2197 82.85 37.71 21.02 17 ARI
這兩人的PF1k+幾乎都是正的(還可以加上之前紅鳥那兩位)
不過最多每千球偷個2X球就是極限了
2.裁判群就是不喜歡你(以書僮跟Rick Porcello為代表)
Clayton Kershaw
Season Pitches PF PF1k MLBPF1k PF1k+ 備註
2008 1859 -7.50 -4.03 -2.77 -1
2009 3030 -2.31 -0.76 11.41 -12
2010 3390 3.28 0.97 17.05 -16
2011 3469 39.20 11.30 20.49 -9 CYA
2012 3469 68.79 19.83 22.05 -2 CYA-2
2013 3428 70.48 20.56 24.00 -3 CYA
2014 2722 34.42 12.65 25.51 -13 CYA
2015 3392 48.05 14.17 23.37 -9 CYA-3
2016 2062 20.05 9.72 21.65 -12 CYA-5
2017 2027 57.54 28.39 21.02 7
原本以為是機車曲球造成的,但文後的雞頭沒這個現象
Rick Porcello
Season Pitches PF PF1k MLBPF1k PF1k+ 備註
2009 2726 68.85 25.26 11.41 14 ROY-3 DET
2010 2591 37.36 14.42 17.05 -3 DET
2011 2860 60.73 21.24 20.49 1 DET
2012 2828 46.69 16.51 22.05 -6 DET
2013 2836 64.23 22.65 24.00 -1 DET
2014 3055 59.14 19.36 25.51 -6 DET
2015 2744 26.05 9.49 23.37 -14 BOS
2016 3410 70.54 20.69 21.65 -1 CYA BOS
2017 2442 60.85 24.92 21.02 4 BOS
3.有時多有時少,大多數投手是這類型
Max Scherzer
Season Pitches PF PF1k MLBPF1k PF1k+ 備註
2008 929 -4.42 -4.76 -2.77 -2 ARI
2009 3073 115.55 37.60 11.41 26 ARI
2010 3297 68.05 20.64 17.05 4 DET
2011 3344 61.27 18.32 20.49 -2 DET
2012 3278 48.06 14.66 22.05 -7 DET
2013 3388 132.31 39.05 24.00 15 CYA DET
2014 3638 92.63 25.46 25.51 -0 CYA-5 DET
2015 3359 95.88 28.54 23.37 5 CYA-5 WSH
2016 3563 60.20 16.90 21.65 -5 CYA WSH
2017 2242 42.05 18.75 21.02 -2 WSH
King Felix
Season Pitches PF PF1k MLBPF1k PF1k+ 備註
2005 1218 15.28 12.54 1.08 11 SEA
2006 3061 -5.05 -1.65 -4.10 2 SEA
2007 3005 -7.93 -2.64 -3.70 1 SEA
2008 3199 -13.71 -4.28 -2.77 -2 SEA
2009 3632 55.74 15.35 11.41 4 SEA
2010 3731 37.34 10.01 17.05 -7 SEA
2011 3609 64.46 17.86 20.49 -3 SEA
2012 3420 89.18 26.08 22.05 4 SEA
2013 3175 48.85 15.39 24.00 -9 SEA
2014 3434 117.21 34.13 25.51 9 SEA
2015 3040 86.87 28.58 23.37 5 SEA
2016 2453 77.40 31.55 21.65 10 SEA
2017 1191 25.67 21.56 21.02 1 SEA
這邊我覺得,確實有些投手的類型是有偷好球能力的
只是要看這個投手歸類在哪一群
不過還是再講一次,影響其實都不大(100球差1~2好球而已)
RP的部份我找了三個人
Aroldis Chapman
Season Pitches PF PF1k MLBPF1k PF1k+ 備註
2010 221 3.99 18.03 17.05 1 CIN
2011 885 14.01 15.83 20.49 -5 CIN
2012 1203 11.80 9.81 22.05 -12 CIN
2013 1099 16.76 15.25 24.00 -9 CIN
2014 935 16.45 17.59 25.51 -8 CIN
2015 1169 15.57 13.32 23.37 -10 CIN
2016 976 -1.29 -1.32 21.65 -23 NYY-CUB
2017 572 -2.14 -3.74 21.02 -25 NYY
※球太快,裁判看不清楚??(第二類投手)
上原浩治
Season Pitches PF PF1k MLBPF1k PF1k+ 備註
2009 1055 18.16 17.21 11.41 6 BAL
2010 689 35.83 52.01 17.05 35 BAL
2011 937 10.21 10.90 20.49 -10 BAL-TEX
2012 513 3.78 7.38 22.05 -15 TEX
2013 1049 29.43 28.05 24.00 4 BOS
2014 950 33.25 35.00 25.51 9 BOS
2015 633 16.18 25.56 23.37 2 BOS
2016 769 15.43 20.06 21.65 -2 BOS
2017 596 6.93 11.62 21.02 -9 CUB
日本來的控球大師,指叉詐騙王(第三類投手)
Mariano Rivera
Season Pitches PF PF1k MLBPF1k PF1k+
2002 719 2.39 3.32 -1.07 4
2003 1008 4.97 4.93 3.64 1
2004 1144 -11.24 -9.83 8.23 -18
2005 1186 2.16 1.82 1.08 1
2006 1101 -12.48 -11.34 -4.10 -7
2007 1125 -3.25 -2.89 -3.70 1
2008 979 -0.25 -0.25 -2.77 3
2009 1027 37.80 36.80 11.41 25
2010 928 23.78 25.63 17.05 9
2011 915 50.87 55.59 20.49 35
2013 941 50.43 53.59 24.00 30
生涯前期穩定第三類投手,但是身涯後期突然偷好球能力大增
我在幾個投球生涯很長的選手生涯後期都有觀察到會偷好球能力大增
這點我想不通是什麼原因,PO這篇文章主要是想問這個
Livan Hernandez
Season Pitches PF PF1k MLBPF1k PF1k+
2002 3476 0.13 0.04 -1.07 1
2003 3571 6.28 1.76 3.64 -2
2004 3926 72.68 18.51 8.23 10
2005 4009 -36.74 -9.16 1.08 -10
2006 3489 -8.57 -2.46 -4.10 2
2007 3361 4.72 1.40 -3.70 5
2008 2801 -7.87 -2.81 -2.77 -0
2009 2977 85.91 28.86 11.41 17
2010 3247 249.50 76.84 17.05 60
2011 2688 174.44 64.90 20.49 44
2012 1111 94.09 84.69 22.05 63
Bartolo Colon
Season Pitches PF PF1k MLBPF1k PF1k+
2002 3553 -3.51 -0.99 -1.07 0
2003 3523 57.85 16.42 3.64 13
2004 3403 21.24 6.24 8.23 -2
2005 3248 34.79 10.71 1.08 10
2006 854 -0.17 -0.20 -4.10 4
2007 1600 -2.16 -1.35 -3.70 2
2008 583 1.29 2.21 -2.77 5
2009 995 5.86 5.89 11.41 -6
2011 2542 139.65 54.94 20.49 34
2012 2141 52.59 24.57 22.05 3
2013 2777 82.94 29.87 24.00 6
2014 3011 107.83 35.81 25.51 10
2015 2706 85.45 31.58 23.37 8
2016 2853 88.93 31.17 21.65 10
2017 1445 74.97 51.88 21.02 31
Barry Zito
Season Pitches PF PF1k MLBPF1k PF1k+
2002 3702 23.99 6.48 -1.07 8
2003 3752 -2.73 -0.73 3.64 -4
2004 3688 46.59 12.63 8.23 4
2005 3804 24.32 6.39 1.08 5
2006 3665 -6.07 -1.66 -4.10 2
2007 3411 -4.44 -1.30 -3.70 2
2008 3206 -12.11 -3.78 -2.77 -1
2009 3204 17.22 5.37 11.41 -6
2010 3250 66.82 20.56 17.05 4
2011 867 46.64 53.80 20.49 33
2012 3068 102.11 33.28 22.05 11
2013 2355 110.84 47.06 24.00 23
2015 150 10.98 73.17 25.51 48
Jamie Moyer
Season Pitches PF PF1k MLBPF1k PF1k+ 備註
2002 3447 -1.48 -0.43 -1.07 1 SEA
2003 3447 46.63 13.53 3.64 10 SEA
2004 3414 22.57 6.61 8.23 -2 SEA
2005 3263 11.84 3.63 1.08 3 SEA
2006 3273 -6.08 -1.86 -4.10 2 SEA-PHI
2007 3148 -4.58 -1.46 -3.70 2 PHI
2008 3167 1.90 0.60 -2.77 3 PHI
2009 2652 111.13 41.90 11.41 30 PHI
2010 1747 73.05 41.81 17.05 25 PHI
2012 919 48.04 52.27 22.05 30 COL
※可惜只有生涯後期的數據
這四個投手非常的奇妙啊,偷好球的能力甚至超過了裁判的影響力
原因我想不通....求救中
最後上個蝴蝶球投手的數據
R.A. Dickey
Season Pitches PF PF1k MLBPF1k PF1k+ 備註
2003 2003 32.44 16.20 3.64 13 TEX
2004 1812 19.64 10.84 8.23 3 TEX
2005 496 2.93 5.90 1.08 5 TEX
2006 61 0.02 0.40 -4.10 4 TEX
2008 1914 -5.80 -3.03 -2.77 -0 SEA
2009 1116 -3.32 -2.98 11.41 -14 MIN
2010 2611 12.83 4.91 17.05 -12 NYM
2011 3132 37.93 12.11 20.49 -8 NYM
2012 3359 68.35 20.35 22.05 -2 NYM
2013 3505 62.00 17.69 24.00 -6 TOR
2014 3513 94.16 26.80 25.51 1 TOR
2015 3264 59.96 18.37 23.37 -5 TOR
2016 2742 45.17 16.47 21.65 -5 TOR
2017 2076 61.64 29.69 21.02 9 ATL
Tim Wakefield
Season PF PF1k MLBPF1k PF1k+ 備註
2002 8.74 3.56 -1.07 5 BOS
2003 16.98 5.35 3.64 2 BOS
2004 24.09 8.06 8.23 -0 BOS
2005 -10.23 -3.02 1.08 -4 BOS
2006 -3.29 -1.46 -4.10 3 BOS
2007 -2.62 -0.91 -3.70 3 BOS
2008 -1.17 -0.42 -2.77 2 BOS
2009 16.95 8.39 11.41 -3 BOS
2010 28.80 13.35 17.05 -4 BOS
2011 52.07 21.55 20.49 1 BOS
Dickey似乎比較衰一點啊 XDDD
數據超多,看完的大大辛苦了
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