[編譯] 補強思維

看板Mariners作者Guillen時間12年前 (2011/10/19 20:47)推噓24(24推 0噓 16→)

留言40則, 23人參與討論串1/2 (看更多)

http://www.ussmariner.com/2011/10/17/its-not-either-or/ 來自USSM，提到水兵季後補強的觀念，個人覺得蠻值得借鏡的，特別是基於對大約球員爛掉的恐懼，以及不算特別寬裕的預算維持。補進三個臭皮匠，可能真的能勝過買進一個諸葛亮。正文開始： When I rolled out a few suggestions last week for low-cost players that I’d like to see the M’s go after, one of the common responses was that guys like Casey McGehee or Angel Pagan weren’t appreciably better than the younger players that were already here, with the idea being that the team shouldn’t bother bringing in any players who aren’t likely to provide significant upgrades at the team’s weak spots. This is one of the ideas that I most strongly disagree with, as it presents roster construction as a false choice of either this guy or that guy, when in reality, good teams give themselves the ability to have both. 當我上週列出了水手可以去追逐的幾個低成本球員，普遍的回應是像Casey McGehee 與 Angel Pagan 這樣的球員，並不比現有的年輕肉體強多少，水手不應該帶進無法大幅改善球隊弱點的選手。這個『選某甲或選某乙是錯誤的』觀點我非常難以苟同，事實上，一支好的球隊應該要某甲跟某乙兩球員得兼。 For instance, let’s focus on third base for a second. Kyle Seager certainly has his supporters who feel that his performance last year should be enough to earn him regular playing time at the hot corner in 2012. As a guy whose only glaring flaw is his inability to hit left-handed pitching, he offers an overall package that projects as a +1 to +2 win player, and he could fill that spot for the league minimum. Because of his presence, quite a few people think the M’s should just leave third base alone and spend their resources elsewhere. 舉三壘這個例子來說，許多人覺得 Kyle Seager 今年球季的表現足以讓他在12'贏得固定上場時間，除了不善面對左投這個缺點外， Seager 可被預估為一個+1勝到+2勝的球員，而且他領的還是聯盟底薪。不少人認為明年可以把三壘交給他，然後把錢投到別的地方去。 The problem is that the choice at third base isn’t really Seager or McGehee (or any other similar type of player), but that in reality, it’s just Seager or Seager and McGehee. If the M’s decide to go into 2012 with Seager as the starting third baseman, then their options for a backup plan at the position become pretty limited. You’re not going to lure any useful role players to Seattle unless you dangle playing time in front of their face – they’re not coming for the winning atmosphere or the hitter friendly ballpark, that’s for sure – and if you give Seager the starting 3B job, you’re quickly out of carrots to get another decent third baseman onto the roster. 問題是三壘真正的選擇不是在Seager 跟McGehee（或這型的球員）之間挑一個，而是只有 Seager跟 Seager+McGehee。如果水手決定Seager是12'開幕戰的先發三壘，那麼三壘的備胎選項就變得相當少。有用的角色球員，沒有拿出上場時間引誘是拿不到的（可以確信他們來西雅圖可不是為了贏球氣氛或是打者天堂的主場），如果給了Seager三壘的正宮名分，要補進另一個像樣的三壘手就失去了籌碼。 So, then, you’re hanging all of your hopes on Seager producing next year, and if he doesn’t, the team is basically screwed. Alex Liddi isn’t ready. I still like Luis Rodriguez, but if he’s the team’s starting third baseman for long stretches next year, something went very wrong. We could sit around hoping that Chone Figgins remembers how to hit, but I’m not holding my breath waiting for that while the coaching staff yells “AGGRESSIVENESS” at everyone who goes up to bat, and I’d imagine the team will try to move him in a bad contract swap this winter anyway. 接著只能指望Seager明年打出成績了，如果他鳥掉了，那球隊差不多就完了。Liddi 還沒準備好；雖然我喜歡 Luis Rodriguez 這個人，但如果他是明年固定的三壘手，代誌就大條了；我們可以期望Figgins 想起來怎麼打擊，但在教練團對於每個上場打擊的打者大吼『攻擊積極點！』的情況下，我還是不期不待的好，我可以想像這個冬天他會跟另一隊的大爛約來個交換。 The M’s simply have no depth at third base, so sticking with the status quo forces the team to put all of their eggs in one unproven basket. Despite the quantity of left fielders on the roster, I’d argue the team is in the same position out there, as Casper Wells is the only guy on the roster that looks like he should get any real playing time at the position next year, and he’s probably not good enough to be a full-time guy either. 基本上水手在三壘這個位置毫無深度可言，所以保持現狀會逼著球隊把所有雞蛋投在同一個未經證實可用的籃子裡。左外野看似人滿為患，但情況跟三壘差不多：Wells 是唯一看起來能擔大任的人，但作為一個全職外野手還不夠好。 The M’s don’t just need one great hitter to “transform the line-up” – they need several decent hitters to stop them from running out a line-up full of black holes again. Here’s the team’s OPS by position in 2011, and where that ranked in MLB: 水手隊不是只需要一個超級巨砲來讓打線脫胎換骨，他們需要幾個不錯的棒子來避免打線再一次地帶著黑洞跟人家比拚。以下是打線在11'的OPS以及聯盟排名： C : .616 (26th) 1B: .760 (20th) 2B: .736 (9th) SS: .659 (21st) 3B: .526 (30th) LF: .649 (26th) CF: .532 (30th) RF: .639 (30th) DH: .648 (14th of 14 AL teams) If you think one good hitting 1B/DH type is going to fix those problems, I don ’t know what to tell you. The team is basically locked into hoping for rebounds in CF/RF, as Gutierrez and Ichiro have established track records that suggest they should be significantly better and contracts that strongly push the team to give them another chance, but C/3B/LF are still going to be glaring holes even if you sign a guy like Prince Fielder. 如果你認為一個1B/DH 的強棒可以解決上面的問題，我不知道還有什麼好說的。右外野與中外野基本上只能寄望現有球員，Gutierrez 跟一朗過去的紀錄顯示他們會大幅反彈，而且他們的合約讓球隊被逼得只能在給他們機會，但縱使簽下了小王子，捕手、三壘、左外野還是大洞。 A significant part of the Mariners problems the last few years have been in having inadequate backup plans for when the guy being counted doesn’t perform. When the team got rid of Milton Bradley last year, they had to turn to Carlos Peguero because they didn’t have a Major League left fielder anywhere in the organization. When Chone Figgins showed he still couldn’t hit, the team turned to Adam Kennedy, and that went about as well as expected. When Miguel Olivo posted a .250 OBP, he still played everyday because the alternatives were Chris Gimenez and Josh Bard. 過去幾年水手的主要問題是當季初設定倚賴的對象爆炸時，沒有合適的備案。今年丟掉 Bradley後，因為沒有合格的左外野手，球隊得寄望Carlos Peguero；Figgins再度鳥掉，球隊轉向求助於Kennedy，結果事情走向跟預期的一樣糟；Olivo的上壘率低到只剩兩成五卻還是每天先發，因為他的替補是Gimenez跟Bard。 The 2012 Mariners should not go into the season so unprepared. It would be great if Seager showed he can hit enough to be a full-time player, Wells established himself as more than a fourth outfielder, Carp remembered how to take a base on balls once in a while, and Gutierrez and Ichiro rebounded to prior levels, but the reality is that the team cannot count on any of those things happening. They have to have realistic alternatives in place so that we don’t get another summer of ridiculous line-ups where Kennedy and Olivo are hitting back-to-back in the middle of the order. 2012 水手不應毫無準備地進入球季，Seager打出符合全職三壘手的成績、Wells拿出了超過四號外野手的身手、Carp 偶爾能靠選球上壘、Gutierrez與一朗反彈都是好事，但事實是球隊不能只依賴上述期望的發生，必須有其他務實的人選，這樣我們才不會再看見Kennedy與Olivo組成中心打線的毆打單。 Bringing in useful role players like McGehee, Snyder, and Pagan would provide depth that could insulate the team from having to rely on minor league players and guys that simply don’t belong in the big leagues in the first place. By simply going from atrocious to decent at a few positions, the team could get a more substantial offensive upgrade than they could by throwing huge gobs of cash at one player, no matter how good of a hitter he is. 補進像McGehee、Snyder、Pagan這類有用的角色球員，可以提供深度以免球隊過早倚賴農作物或是根本不符大聯盟標準的球員，若數個位置的火力輸出從糟透了升級到還不錯的等級，整支球隊將會獲得比砸大錢在單一球員（不管他有多強）身上更多的攻擊力。 The Mariners can’t be an all-their-eggs-in-one-basket team anymore. They can ’t count on Prince Fielder to save their offense, and they can’t count on guys like Seager, Wells, or Carp to perform as regulars without any safety net. There’s spots for some of those guys on the roster, but the team has to make sure that the 2012 offense will still be decent whether those guys perform or not. They should be viewed as upside plays who can provide value in expanded roles if they earn those positions, but should not be counted on to be regular players from day one. 水手隊已經沒辦法把雞蛋全都丟在一個籃子裡，不能期待一個Prince Fielder就能拯救打線，也不能期待Seager、Wells、Carp 在沒有保險的情況下持續擔綱正規軍，球隊有他們的位子，但不論他們能不能打好，必須確保整隊明年的進攻火力還能保持水準，他們能夠勝任這些位置固然是一種加分，但不能期待他們從開幕戰起就擔當起主力。 It’s not either the kids or the veterans. This is a team that needs some veterans to make sure that the team doesn’t sink with the kids once again. 這不是一道年輕人與老練球員二擇一的選擇題，這支球隊需要一些有經驗的傢伙來確保這艘大船不會跟著年輕水手們再度沉沒海底。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 175.182.123.142

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