[轉錄][情報] Division Preview - NL East
※ [本文轉錄自 MLB 看板]
作者: Westmoreland (Five Tools/Seven Skills) 看板: MLB
標題: [情報] Division Preview - NL East
時間: Fri Feb 19 20:38:23 2010
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10072
by Kevin Goldstein
The Philadelphia Phillies dominated the National League East at the end
of the past decade -- winning three straight division titles (aided in
2007 and 2008 by the New York Mets' collapsing in the season's final
weeks) and advancing to the last two World Series as the NL rep.
The Phillies will try to make it four NL East crowns in a row this
season, though the resurgent Atlanta Braves, resourceful Florida Marlins
and retooled Washington Nationals will all be hunting as well. The Mets
also made a big offseason move by signing left fielder Jason Bay to a
four-year, $66 million contract as a free agent. The Phillies did not
stand still, either, trading for Toronto Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay to
be their new rotation anchor, clearing a spot for Halladay by trading
left-hander Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners and signing Placido
Polanco as a free agent to replace Pedro Feliz at third base.
Here is how the NL East stacks up in the eyes of PECOTA, Baseball
Prospectus' proprietary system that projects player and team performance
based on comparison with thousands of player seasons:
Philadelphia Phillies: 88-74 projected 2010 record
Why they might win: Because they are the three-time defending champions
of the division and they just leveraged their strong farm system to
replace a very good Lee with a potentially better Halladay.
Why they might not win: If Cole Hamels doesn't bounce back, the rotation
is Halladay and a bunch of innings eaters. And -- oh goodness -- they're
not going to let Brad Lidge close again, are they?
Player who could surprise: After a rough 2009 campaign, PECOTA sees
shortstop Jimmy Rollins returning to form with a .281 batting average
and the usual power/speed combination. Jose Contreras could turn out to
be a great find as a short-stint reliever.
Player who could disappoint: Scouts and PECOTA think J.A. Happ's 2009
showing was a fluke, and when those two forces agree, rarely are they
wrong. A projected ERA of 4.17 is much closer to reality than last
year's 2.93 mark.
Atlanta Braves: 83-79 projected 2010 record
Why they might win: Jason Heyward is the top position player prospect in
the game, might be the right fielder on Opening Day and one of those
rare talents who could make a big league impact from Day One. Their
rotation could be outstanding, as Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens are
both good young pitchers who could be even better this year -- while the
club is convinced Tim Hudson will return to form after recovering from
Tommy John surgery.
Why they might not win: If Heyward isn't ready, their corner outfield
situation is pretty sad. Also, do you really want to put your faith in a
team that has Billy Wagner closing and Troy Glaus at first base? Good
for you, because few others do.
Player who could surprise: After slumping a bit in the batting-average
department last year, PECOTA projects a nice rebound for Nate McLouth --
with 22 home runs, 24 stolen bases and a career-high .361 on-base
percentage. That's nearly All-Star territory.
Player who could disappoint: PECOTA believes that a Glaus/Eric Hinske
combination at first base could produce 20-plus home runs, but also a
combined slugging percentage that's still under .400. The Braves have
yet to find anything close to a replacement for Mark Teixeira, and after
all of the talent they sent to Texas for him, Atlanta fans probably
don't want to be reminded of that.
Florida Marlins: 81-81 projected 2010 record
Why they might win: Because this is still a young team with plenty of
players still on the upward trajectory of their career -- and let's face
it, the Marlins are pretty much always better than anybody thinks they
will be.
Why they might not win: They don't have a first baseman, unless prospect
Logan Morrison can make a big move this spring, while Jorge Cantu and
Emilio Bonifacio provide nearly equal weakness at the other corner. The
potential roster is loaded with young arms that have yet to live up
their potential.
Player who could surprise: Our new pitching metric, SIERA (Skill
Interactive ERA), identifies righty Ricky Nolasco as one of the top
sleepers in the game this season. On a pure element basis, he was much
better than last year's 5.06 ERA, and PECOTA believes he'll be nearly as
good as Marlins ace Josh Johnson in 2010.
Player who could disappoint: PECOTA projects a major regression for 2009
NL Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan, with a batting line of
.284/.369/.430 -- making him an average-at-best left fielder.
New York Mets: 79-83 projected 2010 record
Why they might win: Because there's no way things could be as bad as
they were in 2009. This roster still has plenty of star power. If
they're healthy, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Johan Santana should all
have solid campaigns. They also landed Bay, who strengthens a real weak
spot in left field.
Why they might not win: Because they've found a way to turn the season
into a nightmare for three straight years, so why stop now? Bay was a
great get, but what this team really needed was a starter behind
Santana, and that never materialized.
Player who could surprise: While it's not the kind of thing any
projection system can measure, don't underestimate how important having
other productive players in the lineup will be to David Wright, for whom
PECOTA projects a strong rebound: a batting line of .303/.401/.516 with
26 home runs.
Player who could disappoint: While Bay has slugged over .500 in every
year of his career other than 2007, PECOTA sees a player who is not
aging so gracefully, with a .258/.360/.475 line, not exactly what one
expects for $15 million.
Washington Nationals: 76-86 projected 2010 record
Why they might win: They're not going to win big, but PECOTA sees a team
that lost 103 games last year finishing just five games under .500.
Stephen Strasburg's first year as a pro could be very similar to Mark
Prior's 2002 season, when he made nine minor league starts, was in the
majors by the end of May, and was immediately the best pitcher on the
staff.
Why they might not win: Because they're still the Nationals and they're
still not very good. This is the team that allowed 874 runs last year,
100 more than 13 of the 15 other teams in the league. Even with
Strasburg and the addition of Jason Marquis, the end of the rotation is
a nightmare, and the bullpen isn't much better, with new closer Matt
Capps going into the year with a possibility of being the only reliever
with a projected ERA below 4.00.
Player who could surprise: While righty Garrett Mock got knocked around
for a .308 opponents' batting average and a 5.62 ERA last year, PECOTA
sees a good skill set and solid minor league track record, projecting
him as a big-league average starter with a 4.23 ERA.
Player who could disappoint: PECOTA has no faith in the .351 batting
average center fielder Nyjer Morgan posted for the Nationals last season
after being acquired in a late-June trade; he's projected for a
.283/.348/.385 batting line in 2010. That's not only a below-average
player, but also well off Morgan's career line.
大概知道在說什麼吧 應該也不用再翻譯= =
小史前幾年像Mark Prior 就好拜託
看來這些補強依舊不被看好......
連預期的五成都沒有
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