Re: [漁塭] 2011 BA's Top 10 Prospects

看板RedSox作者Belladonaa ( )時間13年前 (2010/12/05 10:23)推噓21(21推 0噓 16→)

留言37則, 20人參與討論串4/6 (看更多)

1. Casey Kelly, rhp Born: Oct. 4, 1989 ‧ B-T: R-R ‧ Ht: 6-3 ‧ Wt: 210 Drafted: HS—Sarasota, Fla., 2008 (1st round) ‧ Signed by: Anthony Turco Background: Kelly was one of the top two-way players in the 2008 draft coming out of high school, but his high asking price and scholarship to play quarterback at Tennessee made him available to the Red Sox with the 30th overall pick. They viewed him as the most polished high school arm in the draft and signed him for $3 million, a franchise record for a draftee. The son of former big league catcher Pat Kelly, Casey preferred playing every day to pitching, and Boston agreed to let him make his debut at shortstop. He didn't pitch professionally until 2009, then switched back to shortstop after appearing in the Futures Game. Kelly showed fluid actions and power potential as a shortstop, but after hitting .219 in two pro seasons and .171 in the Arizona Fall League, he agreed last offseason that his future was on the mound. The Red Sox assigned him to Double-A Portland, where at 20 he was the youngest starting pitcher in the Eastern League. He took his lumps against older competition, though his pure stuff improved as he got bigger and stronger. Boston shut him down as a precaution when he strained a lat muscle in early August, and he returned to the mound in the Arizona Fall League. Scouting Report: Kelly's ERA may have ballooned from 2.08 in 2009 to 5.31 last season, but the Red Sox think that's attributable to having to learn how to harness an increase in velocity and make his mechanics work as his frame started to mature. His fastball now sits at 90-94 mph, up from 89-92 the year before, and peaks at 96. Kelly showed the ability to consistently locate his fastball on both corners with sink in 2009 but didn't command it as well in 2010. With his fluid, athletic delivery, he should regain that skill once he fully grows into his body. His struggles came in part because he couldn't paint the black as effectively, causing him to fall behind in the count. His most effective pitch right now is an above-average changeup that he delivers with the same arm speed and slot as his fastball, though he used his changeup a little too much last season. His curveball gives him a potential third plus pitch. It's a power breaking ball at times, and more of an average pitch that he just gets over for strikes at others. Kelly has an advanced feel for pitching, though he needs to trust his stuff and challenge hitters more rather than trying to live on the corners. His athleticism enables him to keep basestealers in check and field his position well. He has good mound presence and didn't get flustered when he struggled at Portland. The Future: It's easy to forget that 2010 was Kelly's first full year as a pitcher, after he split time between hitting and pitching in 2009, and his learning curve against Double-A hitters was steep. The Red Sox aren't worried about his less-than-gaudy statistics, still envisioning him becoming a frontline starter with three possible plus pitches and above-average command. He should reach Triple-A Pawtucket at some point in 2011, perhaps even to start the season, and his big league ETA is 2012. 3. Anthony Rizzo, 1b Born: Aug. 8, 1989 ‧ B-T: L-L ‧ Ht: 6-3 ‧ Wt: 220 Drafted: HS—Parkland, Fla., 2007 (6th round) ‧ Signed by: Laz Gutierrez Background: Rizzo was hitting .373 at low Class A Greenville in April 2008 when he was diagnosed with limited stage classical Hodgkin's lymphoma. After missing the rest of that season to get treatment, he has been cancer-free and established himself as the best offensive prospect in the system. Scouting Report: Rizzo generates plus power with strength and leverage, and he drives the ball well to the opposite field. With his willingness to use the entire field and his patience, he should hit for a solid average and draw some walks, though he needs to refine his two-strike approach. He also needs to make adjustments against lefthanders after hitting .217/.290/.380 against them in 2010. Managers rated him the best defensive first baseman in the Eastern League, as he has smooth actions and does a good job of picking throws out of the dirt. He can get nonchalant in the field, however, which led to 15 errors last season. He's a below-average runner but moves well for his size. The Future: He has passed Lars Anderson as Boston's first baseman of the future, though Rizzo still has to contend with Kevin Youkilis in the majors. He figures to open 2011 by returning to Double-A and could push for a big league job the following season. 6. Reymond Fuentes, of Born: Feb. 12, 1991 ‧ B-T: L-L ‧ Ht: 6-0 ‧ Wt: 170 Drafted: HS—Manati, P.R., 2009 (1st round) ‧ Signed by: Edgar Perez Background: The Red Sox made Fuentes the sixth Puerto Rican ever drafted in the first round, and the first since the Blue Jays' Miguel Negron in 2000, when they selected him 28th overall in 2009. Signed for $1.134 million, he helped Greenville reach the South Atlantic League finals in his first full season. Scouting Report: Fuentes is the best athlete in the system, drawing comparisons to Carlos Beltran (his cousin) and Johnny Damon. His plus- plus speed gives him impact potential in center field and on the bases. Managers rated him the best defensive outfielder in the SAL, where he stole 42 bases in 47 attempts. He enhances his quickness by getting great jumps on balls, and he compensates for a below-average arm by charging balls and making accurate throws. Fuentes has a line-drive stroke, and his bat speed portends some future pop once he adds some much-needed strength. He's still learning the strike zone but made some good adjustments in the second half of 2010. The Future: Though Fuentes may need four or five seasons in the minors, his upside makes him worth the wait. He has similar tools to Jacoby Ellsbury, and he's a more advanced hitter at the same stage and should become a better defender. Fuentes will spend 2011 in high Class A. -- Proposed Gonzalez deal fairly even By Keith Law (12/4/10) The Red Sox are close to acquiring Adrian Gonzalez for three of their best prospects, including their top two, but wouldn't lose anything off the major league roster, while San Diego would get a very strong long- term return for its best trading chip but probably wouldn't see much from the trade in Petco this season. I think both sides should feel they made out well if this trade is completed. Gonzalez might have standing for a lawsuit against the architects of Petco Park, as there's probably no other position player whose performance has been held down by his home field as much as his. Over the past two years, he's hit .311/.402/.610 away from home, with 48 home runs and 90 walks in 704 PA. He'd move to the toughest division in baseball, but with good power not just to right field but all the way over to left-center, he should be good for 40-plus doubles and 30-plus homers at a minimum. He's an excellent defensive first baseman and his presence would allow the Red Sox to slide Kevin Youkilis back over to third while saying "So long and thanks for all the draft picks!" to Adrian Beltre. While the Red Sox would give up a lot of years of control and prospect depth for just one year of Gonzalez's services, none of the three players they would trade was likely to help them in 2011, and after missing the playoffs this past season they seem to be very focused on returning there in the upcoming year. It's widely assumed that the Red Sox will attempt to sign Gonzalez to a long-term deal, and he's the ideal candidate for the sort of overly long contract I usually hate for free agents. He turns 29 in May, so a six- year extension (seven years out) only takes him through his age-35 season, which would give Boston a good three to four years of peak and some early decline years -- but because Gonzalez is a good defender, has such an advanced feel for the zone and hits left-handed pitching so well (despite hitting left-handed himself), I like his odds to hold his value deep into such a lengthy deal. Such a contract would probably make first-base prospect Lars Anderson trade bait as well if the Sox want to make another acquisition this winter or during the 2011 season. Right-hander Casey Kelly would be the marquee prospect name coming back to San Diego in the trade as a first-round pick, who earned a top-five bonus as the last pick in 2008's first round, as the Red Sox lured him away from a scholarship to play quarterback at the University of Tennessee. Kelly was a two-way prospect in high school as a plus defensive shortstop as well as a pitcher, but 2010 marked his first year as a full-time pitcher after a hundred-odd games of struggling with the bat convinced him to accede to the Red Sox's plans to develop him on the mound. Kelly had excellent command for a high school pitcher, with a sharp curveball with excellent depth, and will sit 89-94 in his best outings with good arm speed on a hard changeup. His performance was up and down in 2010, in part due to a badly cracked fingernail on the middle finger of his right hand, giving him trouble with both fastball command and finishing his curveball. Kelly's arm works well, with a short, simple path, and he's an outstanding defensive pitcher to the point that it's like having an extra infielder on the diamond. He's probably a 2012 debut, and he could start 2011 back at Double-A if the Padres want to keep him out of a good hitting environment in Tucson. First baseman Anthony Rizzo would be the long-term replacement for Gonzalez in San Diego, perhaps as soon as the start of 2012, although, as he's Rule 5-eligible after 2011, he could earn a late-season call-up this year if he performs well in Triple-A Tucson. Like Gonzalez, Rizzo is a plus-fielding, plus-makeup, power-hitting first baseman, although he's probably a notch below Gonzalez as a pure hitter and has had some trouble with left-handed pitching so far in the minors. Rizzo missed most of 2008 after he was diagnosed with Hodgkin's lymphoma in May of that year, a few months before his 19th birthday, but has played two full seasons since then, showing increasing power and good feel for the strike zone. In 2002, Gonzalez played in Portland at age 20, which was a Marlins affiliate at the time, and hit .266/.344/.437 with 34 doubles and 17 home runs in 573 PA. Rizzo played most of 2010 in Portland, also at age 20, and hit .263/.334/.481 with 30 doubles and 20 home runs in 467 PA. It's not a perfect comparison, as league quality varies from year to year and Portland did alter its left-field wall in 2003 by adding the "Maine monster," but given the overall similarity and the fact that Rizzo lost a year of development while he fought cancer, it's more evidence for optimism in San Diego. Outfielder Reymond Fuentes would be the third piece in the deal, the one guy who's not a top-50 prospect, but was a legitimate first-round talent at the time of the draft and still has a lot of potential, even though he's probably a full three years away. Fuentes is a 70-75 runner with 70 range in center, making him an ideal defensive fit for Petco's spacious outfield, and he has good feel for the bat with the potential to hit for average down the road. He really needs to get stronger -- while he'll probably never have even average power, he's still slight and needs to be able to drive the ball to the gaps and show he can handle better velocity when he reaches Double-A. His one major negative is a fringy arm, 40 or 45 depending on which day you see him, but I think he has the potential to be Jacoby Ellsbury without all the injuries. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.160.67.157

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leon0000

12/05 11:01, , 1^F

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※ 編輯: Belladonaa 來自: 118.160.67.157 (12/05 11:06)

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MichaelBourn

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rayhsiao

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