[情報] 98W TCFA

看板TY_Research作者 (markshian)時間12年前 (2012/09/10 22:07), 編輯推噓8(8推 0噓 15→)
留言23則, 9人參與, 最新討論串6/6 (看更多)
WTPN21 PGTW 101400 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.5N 135.7E TO 14.2N 133.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 101200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 135.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 136.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 135.0E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTH- NORTH EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE NEAR THE CENTER. A 101101Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC WITH OUTER BANDS IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE BEGINNING TO FORM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 98W IS UNDER A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE WITH OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS AND WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 111400Z.// NNNN http://tinyurl.com/cc7kfym -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 122.117.32.41
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09/10 22:08, , 1F
好 上工!!
09/10 22:08, 1F
推
09/10 22:12, , 2F
目前預報還是改來改去 但這個似乎是北上離開
09/10 22:12, 2F
推
09/10 22:15, , 3F
喔喔 原來如此
09/10 22:15, 3F
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09/10 22:27, , 4F
變數太多了,想想07年柯羅莎 08年辛樂克,當初預報也是
09/10 22:27, 4F
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09/10 22:28, , 5F
改來改去,最後也都來台灣,秋天的颱風動態很複雜,幾乎
09/10 22:28, 5F
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09/10 22:28, , 6F
是牽一髮而動全身,再觀望看看吧@"@
09/10 22:28, 6F
推
09/10 22:30, , 7F
對阿 所以說目前還在變動階段 目前預報是北上
09/10 22:30, 7F
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09/10 22:31, , 8F
但據說GFS這報有往西調了一些 我還沒FOLLOW到..
09/10 22:31, 8F
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09/10 22:34, , 9F
其實GFS前幾報還有跑出過125E,並在北部海面轉西南西
09/10 22:34, 9F
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09/10 22:35, , 10F
也曾跑出過130E後轉東北XDD,變數仍大
09/10 22:35, 10F
推
09/10 22:57, , 11F
周四要去澎湖= =私心希望＿＿海上
09/10 22:57, 11F
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09/10 23:03, , 12F
過幾天再看看~
09/10 23:03, 12F
推
09/10 23:39, , 13F
真的變數很多，像辛樂克二世原本各家都估他會北上離
09/10 23:39, 13F
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09/10 23:40, , 14F
開，誰知道太平洋高壓突然就伸了過來，而且伸的有夠
09/10 23:40, 14F
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09/10 23:41, , 15F
慢，結果造成辛樂克慢吞吞讓大家措手不及
09/10 23:41, 15F
推
09/10 23:46, , 16F
看好明晚到後天升格成17W
09/10 23:46, 16F
推
09/11 01:06, , 17F
蠻有型的，未來應該很可觀
09/11 01:06, 17F
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09/12 00:18, , 18F
請教, tinyurl.com/cc7kfym 找不到檔案耶/w\
09/12 00:18, 18F
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09/12 00:21, , 19F
因為已經升格為颱風了 http://tinyurl.com/czuxjwa
09/12 00:21, 19F
推
09/12 00:25, , 20F
Soga~ 感恩，本想參考看看，以後要找TD alert 到哪找
09/12 00:25, 20F
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09/12 00:26, , 21F
usno.navy.mil? (抖 .mil 是.. ... (艸)
09/12 00:26, 21F
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09/12 07:39, , 22F
建議可以使用 http://tinyurl.com/d7ls8nl
09/12 07:39, 22F
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09/12 07:40, , 23F
這是FNMOC,通常資料更新會比較快
09/12 07:40, 23F
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