天氣小觀:模式預報,最特別一波冷高壓三天後南下
模式預報,最特別的一波冷高壓三天後南下
三天後,是入冬以來從沒有過的,也是少見的一波大氣波動。
特別的地方在於
1. 東亞的高空冷渦旋直接割離殺到東海,渦旋勢力涵蓋到台灣北部
雖然已經四月,但是高空冷渦旋的下方直接受到寒冷空氣侵襲,
因此,預報北部受冷氣團侵襲,甚至可能達到強烈冷氣團等級。
在冬季如果這種模式,是非同小可,在冬季,冷渦旋下方地面都是冰凍的。
2. 伴隨高空冷渦旋割離到東海,地面冷高壓直接壓到華南,從台灣北方出海,
冷高壓中心從這麼低的緯度出海,再往南,就會通過台灣北部了。
3. 事實上原先蒙古冷高壓從蒙古要往東移,
然而高空冷渦旋暴走,蒙古冷高壓也跟著暴走了,竟往回走,
轉西南滑向華中,再滑向華南,然後才東移出海。
3. 於是:高空冷渦旋暴走南下,地面冷高壓暴走南下,東北季風暴走
由於冷高壓衝擊,大量的乾冷空氣吹向中南半島,把中南半島的熱對流擾動驅散。
是否衝擊到南亞高壓,甚至西南季風的爆發期,有待觀察?
4. 不過後頭這波冷空氣南侵後,冷氣團重新退縮在北方活動,南方太平洋高壓登場,
只是受到的衝擊還需要時間恢復,台灣溫度緩緩上升,不至於一下熱起來。
因此,從模式預報看來 & 理論上來說,這將會是 最後一波冷氣團 & 東北季風,
因為往年,四月中以後,冷高壓南下都會變性,
很難再出現冷高壓率領東北季風南下,甚至還達陣冷氣團的,
只是,如果東北亞的冷渦旋又分裂暴走,那就只能..跟著奇蹟走了。
(以上供參囉)
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※ 編輯: daron (223.136.222.94), 04/10/2015 13:00:51
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04/10 13:04, , 1F
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北方冷渦旋殺到低緯度造成冷氣團的,很少見,2013印象中好像不是耶,
要看當時的高空圖
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※ 編輯: daron (223.136.222.94), 04/10/2015 13:30:35
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