熱鬧的熱帶洋面~2015/06/30
熱帶洋面上熱鬧滾滾!!
目前來看三個擾動都有各自發展的趨勢,
其中最東邊的95W結構最好,已經發布了熱帶氣旋形成警報(TCFA),
受到太平洋高壓引導,可能往西北轉西北西移動。
夾在中間的94W也逐漸在鞏固環流,未來跟95W有機會互相接近,
甚至產生所謂的"藤原效應",互相旋轉或是合併,
未來的變化應該會相當有趣,有興趣的朋友可以密切注意觀察。
至於最西邊的無編號擾動(不知道為何NRL都不理它...),
其實它離台灣最近,而且真正跟西南季風明顯有所接軌的也是它,
東邊的兩個已編號擾動依靠的反而主要是跨赤道西風氣流,
雖然它的中心比較空,對流爆發程度還不足,但是環流算是蠻清楚完整的,
未來的發展變化同樣值得密切注意,周末期間有往菲律賓呂宋島以東海面接近的趨勢。
P.S 看著每一報都在歡樂劇變的GFS模式,其實我很想問,大家相信嗎....XD
http://i.imgur.com/tpoRhHL.jpg
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