Re: [颱風] 2411 摩羯
來看看00Z各電腦模式的資料好了
以GFS本身來說 誤差圈基本上是天女散花
系及平均與決定性預報的誤差很大
https://i.imgur.com/114ydHp.png
以此報做為資料源餵給AI後可以觀察到基本上都是南海貨
輝達FourCstNet是經過海南島進入北部灣後登陸越南
https://i.imgur.com/YzEDIW4.gif
華為Pangu也有類似的看法
https://i.imgur.com/Q2XbYnx.gif
谷歌GraphCast是從廣西登陸中國然後消散
https://i.imgur.com/KpAQYWK.gif
至於EC嗎 它的成員也是鬼畫符 但相對GFS來說有共識些
至少系及平均與決定性預報沒有太大差異
https://i.imgur.com/L9GUbz8.png
以此報餵給AI分析後可以發現依然是南海貨
華為Pangu認為從廣西登陸後會飄到越南一帶並在北部灣滯留消散
https://i.imgur.com/HXR1wxA.gif
輝達FourCastNet跟谷歌GraphCast也有類似的預測
https://i.imgur.com/m0m4I9Z.gif
倒是微軟Aurora跑出了從澳門登陸後在中國東南陸地上滯留的預測
https://i.imgur.com/7mUXszu.gif
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