Re: [心得] 神魔幻匣道中統計(3251抽)

看板ToS作者 (馬來西亞國語)時間8年前 (2016/07/19 15:23), 8年前編輯推噓32(32推 0噓 42→)
留言74則, 40人參與, 最新討論串2/6 (看更多)
關於有沒有保底這回事，誰也拿不出證據。 爭論沒有意義，不如做點實驗， 大家用自己喜歡的觀點看待都市傳說就好。 用python跑點簡單的實驗 觀察數字分布 沒有保底，81取2，每張機率均等抽10000張 python code http://survivor.ntu.edu.tw/maybaodi.py 黑妍數量: 248 10000抽之中中黑妍的編號 [9, 11, 59, 126, 141, 153, 220, 222, 233, 248, 250, 448, 467, 483, 487, 512, 541, 563, 602, 615, 668, 671, 724, 727, 753, 801, 857, 920, 1005, 1009, 1083, 1220, 1250, 1294, 1310, 1321, 1460, 1498, 1518, 1551, 1667, 1697, 1721, 1735, 1764, 1810, 1842, 1845, 1884, 1969, 1989, 2030, 2032, 2056, 2061, 2074, 2131, 2146, 2224, 2289, 2339, 2361, 2367, 2387, 2482, 2565, 2588, 2644, 2645, 2650, 2657, 2679, 2698, 2720, 2772, 2776, 2781, 2782, 2950, 2956, 2994, 3028, 3031, 3046, 3100, 3159, 3239, 3265, 3308, 3318, 3477, 3492, 3495, 3575, 3579, 3623, 3682, 3884, 3950, 3955, 3992, 4041, 4092, 4101, 4102, 4167, 4235, 4267, 4269, 4276, 4295, 4311, 4313, 4413, 4490, 4502, 4554, 4669, 4735, 4751, 4773, 4803, 4908, 4971, 5058, 5065, 5127, 5159, 5169, 5249, 5250, 5269, 5276, 5308, 5319, 5343, 5426, 5457, 5519, 5558, 5561, 5563, 5585, 5651, 5653, 5753, 5878, 5914, 5935, 5939, 5941, 6077, 6117, 6168, 6192, 6194, 6256, 6298, 6315, 6364, 6387, 6502, 6547, 6564, 6576, 6584, 6631, 6671, 6702, 6726, 6738, 6816, 6874, 6892, 6982, 7006, 7136, 7166, 7168, 7182, 7240, 7249, 7263, 7304, 7338, 7547, 7614, 7639, 7659, 7661, 7749, 7754, 7792, 7806, 7842, 7872, 7910, 7924, 7980, 8080, 8086, 8088, 8248, 8266, 8298, 8332, 8340, 8360, 8452, 8466, 8539, 8575, 8629, 8663, 8699, 8708, 8758, 8781, 8855, 8892, 8938, 9086, 9119, 9168, 9178, 9283, 9287, 9303, 9324, 9480, 9494, 9514, 9547, 9569, 9582, 9624, 9626, 9695, 9707, 9716, 9751, 9816, 9838, 9851, 9894, 9938, 9940, 9967] 兩次抽到黑妍之間的張數 [2, 48, 67, 15, 12, 67, 2, 11, 15, 2, 198, 19, 16, 4, 25, 29, 22, 39, 13, 53, 3, 53, 3, 26, 48, 56, 63, 85, 4, 74, 137, 30, 44, 16, 11, 139, 38, 20, 33, 116, 30, 24, 14, 29, 46, 32, 3, 39, 85, 20, 41, 2, 24, 5, 13, 57, 15, 78, 65, 50, 22, 6, 20, 95, 83, 23, 56, 1, 5, 7, 22, 19, 22, 52, 4, 5, 1, 168, 6, 38, 34, 3, 15, 54, 59, 80, 26, 43, 10, 159, 15, 3, 80, 4, 44, 59, 202, 66, 5, 37, 49, 51, 9, 1, 65, 68, 32, 2, 7, 19, 16, 2, 100, 77, 12, 52, 115, 66, 16, 22, 30, 105, 63, 87, 7, 62, 32, 10, 80, 1, 19, 7, 32, 11, 24, 83, 31, 62, 39, 3, 2, 22, 66, 2, 100, 125, 36, 21, 4, 2, 136, 40, 51, 24, 2, 62, 42, 17, 49, 23, 115, 45, 17, 12, 8, 47, 40, 31, 24, 12, 78, 58, 18, 90, 24, 130, 30, 2, 14, 58, 9, 14, 41, 34, 209, 67, 25, 20, 2, 88, 5, 38, 14, 36, 30, 38, 14, 56, 100, 6, 2, 160, 18, 32, 34, 8, 20, 92, 14, 73, 36, 54, 34, 36, 9, 50, 23, 74, 37, 46, 148, 33, 49, 10, 105, 4, 16, 21, 156, 14, 20, 33, 22, 13, 42, 2, 69, 12, 9, 35, 65, 22, 13, 43, 44, 2, 27] 有保底 保底機制: (1)先隨便抽，機率均等，並記錄累積未中數量 (2)當累積未中數量達到30 黑妍機率變45% 31 50% 32 55% ... 39 90% 大於等於40 95% (3)無論於均等機率或是提升機率時抽中黑妍，累積未中數量重置 一樣抽10000張 python code http://survivor.ntu.edu.tw/yobaodi.py 黑妍數量: 455 10000抽之中中黑妍的編號 [13, 17, 48, 79, 110, 119, 125, 156, 188, 193, 200, 226, 257, 288, 319, 323, 354, 363, 386, 417, 448, 474, 486, 498, 529, 559, 590, 621, 652, 683, 711, 742, 772, 795, 827, 844, 875, 888, 895, 900, 931, 948, 979, 1005, 1036, 1067, 1098, 1129, 1130, 1132, 1163, 1168, 1197, 1200, 1205, 1236, 1249, 1256, 1286, 1318, 1349, 1365, 1386, 1417, 1418, 1424, 1440, 1456, 1470, 1501, 1512, 1525, 1553, 1584, 1602, 1616, 1647, 1659, 1679, 1710, 1719, 1750, 1752, 1783, 1803, 1828, 1834, 1849, 1880, 1911, 1927, 1958, 1990, 2022, 2053, 2085, 2104, 2115, 2116, 2118, 2146, 2177, 2208, 2239, 2270, 2301, 2318, 2349, 2380, 2411, 2415, 2422, 2429, 2435, 2466, 2487, 2499, 2529, 2543, 2549, 2554, 2557, 2582, 2613, 2644, 2675, 2686, 2717, 2733, 2764, 2795, 2826, 2857, 2880, 2912, 2913, 2944, 2975, 3006, 3037, 3040, 3050, 3061, 3093, 3122, 3127, 3159, 3176, 3208, 3239, 3243, 3274, 3304, 3335, 3366, 3381, 3408, 3409, 3413, 3436, 3454, 3485, 3510, 3541, 3554, 3583, 3614, 3645, 3676, 3703, 3728, 3759, 3790, 3822, 3828, 3859, 3861, 3874, 3905, 3936, 3951, 3968, 3999, 4008, 4024, 4055, 4056, 4088, 4119, 4150, 4172, 4203, 4234, 4235, 4252, 4283, 4314, 4345, 4346, 4366, 4397, 4428, 4432, 4463, 4478, 4509, 4526, 4551, 4575, 4598, 4607, 4628, 4650, 4681, 4712, 4725, 4747, 4778, 4809, 4840, 4871, 4897, 4928, 4930, 4961, 4992, 5023, 5048, 5071, 5077, 5108, 5112, 5120, 5128, 5159, 5178, 5209, 5241, 5242, 5273, 5277, 5278, 5304, 5336, 5347, 5378, 5400, 5431, 5462, 5493, 5524, 5555, 5587, 5601, 5632, 5663, 5694, 5725, 5736, 5749, 5780, 5799, 5819, 5830, 5861, 5864, 5878, 5909, 5928, 5954, 5985, 5991, 6014, 6039, 6070, 6075, 6079, 6110, 6129, 6160, 6191, 6204, 6217, 6248, 6267, 6294, 6325, 6340, 6364, 6377, 6400, 6431, 6462, 6473, 6504, 6507, 6523, 6554, 6574, 6605, 6606, 6637, 6668, 6678, 6709, 6740, 6750, 6753, 6755, 6786, 6817, 6828, 6839, 6870, 6901, 6932, 6963, 6964, 6991, 7022, 7053, 7084, 7096, 7120, 7151, 7182, 7194, 7211, 7220, 7239, 7270, 7298, 7329, 7360, 7391, 7422, 7453, 7465, 7493, 7521, 7552, 7563, 7568, 7599, 7610, 7641, 7663, 7693, 7724, 7755, 7780, 7811, 7842, 7873, 7904, 7921, 7953, 7984, 8010, 8034, 8044, 8049, 8080, 8111, 8116, 8117, 8120, 8151, 8153, 8184, 8215, 8216, 8223, 8254, 8271, 8302, 8303, 8314, 8343, 8374, 8405, 8436, 8468, 8491, 8522, 8544, 8575, 8579, 8593, 8625, 8634, 8650, 8661, 8662, 8693, 8724, 8751, 8774, 8805, 8825, 8856, 8874, 8899, 8905, 8936, 8947, 8960, 8963, 8980, 8989, 9020, 9051, 9082, 9113, 9134, 9136, 9169, 9176, 9197, 9228, 9234, 9260, 9291, 9322, 9353, 9357, 9358, 9389, 9420, 9421, 9439, 9470, 9501, 9532, 9558, 9589, 9616, 9641, 9644, 9676, 9707, 9739, 9770, 9801, 9832, 9851, 9852, 9883, 9895, 9898, 9929, 9950, 9956, 9961, 9992] 兩次抽到黑妍之間的張數 [4, 31, 31, 31, 9, 6, 31, 32, 5, 7, 26, 31, 31, 31, 4, 31, 9, 23, 31, 31, 26, 12, 12, 31, 30, 31, 31, 31, 31, 28, 31, 30, 23, 32, 17, 31, 13, 7, 5, 31, 17, 31, 26, 31, 31, 31, 31, 1, 2, 31, 5, 29, 3, 5, 31, 13, 7, 30, 32, 31, 16, 21, 31, 1, 6, 16, 16, 14, 31, 11, 13, 28, 31, 18, 14, 31, 12, 20, 31, 9, 31, 2, 31, 20, 25, 6, 15, 31, 31, 16, 31, 32, 32, 31, 32, 19, 11, 1, 2, 28, 31, 31, 31, 31, 31, 17, 31, 31, 31, 4, 7, 7, 6, 31, 21, 12, 30, 14, 6, 5, 3, 25, 31, 31, 31, 11, 31, 16, 31, 31, 31, 31, 23, 32, 1, 31, 31, 31, 31, 3, 10, 11, 32, 29, 5, 32, 17, 32, 31, 4, 31, 30, 31, 31, 15, 27, 1, 4, 23, 18, 31, 25, 31, 13, 29, 31, 31, 31, 27, 25, 31, 31, 32, 6, 31, 2, 13, 31, 31, 15, 17, 31, 9, 16, 31, 1, 32, 31, 31, 22, 31, 31, 1, 17, 31, 31, 31, 1, 20, 31, 31, 4, 31, 15, 31, 17, 25, 24, 23, 9, 21, 22, 31, 31, 13, 22, 31, 31, 31, 31, 26, 31, 2, 31, 31, 31, 25, 23, 6, 31, 4, 8, 8, 31, 19, 31, 32, 1, 31, 4, 1, 26, 32, 11, 31, 22, 31, 31, 31, 31, 31, 32, 14, 31, 31, 31, 31, 11, 13, 31, 19, 20, 11, 31, 3, 14, 31, 19, 26, 31, 6, 23, 25, 31, 5, 4, 31, 19, 31, 31, 13, 13, 31, 19, 27, 31, 15, 24, 13, 23, 31, 31, 11, 31, 3, 16, 31, 20, 31, 1, 31, 31, 10, 31, 31, 10, 3, 2, 31, 31, 11, 11, 31, 31, 31, 31, 1, 27, 31, 31, 31, 12, 24, 31, 31, 12, 17, 9, 19, 31, 28, 31, 31, 31, 31, 31, 12, 28, 28, 31, 11, 5, 31, 11, 31, 22, 30, 31, 31, 25, 31, 31, 31, 31, 17, 32, 31, 26, 24, 10, 5, 31, 31, 5, 1, 3, 31, 2, 31, 31, 1, 7, 31, 17, 31, 1, 11, 29, 31, 31, 31, 32, 23, 31, 22, 31, 4, 14, 32, 9, 16, 11, 1, 31, 31, 27, 23, 31, 20, 31, 18, 25, 6, 31, 11, 13, 3, 17, 9, 31, 31, 31, 31, 21, 2, 33, 7, 21, 31, 6, 26, 31, 31, 31, 4, 1, 31, 31, 1, 18, 31, 31, 31, 26, 31, 27, 25, 3, 32, 31, 32, 31, 31, 31, 19, 1, 31, 12, 3, 31, 21, 6, 5, 31] 當然萬一有保底，大家也不知道MH設定的機制， 所以小弟姑且隨意提供一種。 大家可以隨意改改機制或多跑幾次實驗， 看看能不能逼近MH的玩法XD -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 140.112.3.74 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/ToS/M.1468913016.A.C03.html
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07/19 15:24, , 1F
滿滿的都是數字眼睛都花了
07/19 15:24, 1F
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07/19 15:24, , 2F
請...請給我懶人包 好花
07/19 15:24, 2F
※ 編輯: BahasaMelayu (140.112.3.74), 07/19/2016 15:26:58
推
07/19 15:26, , 3F
快推，不然會被説看不懂，其實我真的看不懂
07/19 15:26, 3F
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07/19 15:26, , 4F
先給箭頭
07/19 15:26, 4F
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07/19 15:26, , 5F
第五行的敘述有點問題, 即使是假設沒有保底, 但目前
07/19 15:26, 5F
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07/19 15:27, , 6F
的樣本資料看來, 新妍希卡的機率並不是81取2, 是更高
07/19 15:27, 6F
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07/19 15:27, , 7F
的3.x%
07/19 15:27, 7F
推
07/19 15:28, , 8F
光給數據很難看出結論 至少用個圖表統計
07/19 15:28, 8F
推
07/19 15:28, , 9F
快推，不然人家會知道我們看不懂！！
07/19 15:28, 9F
推
07/19 15:29, , 10F
看不懂 懶人包呢?
07/19 15:29, 10F
推
07/19 15:31, , 11F
我推！
07/19 15:31, 11F
===============================================
推
07/19 15:32, , 12F
看"兩次抽到黑妍之間的張數" 前提沒保底很明顯跟統計的數據
07/19 15:32, 12F
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07/19 15:33, , 13F
差很多 因此結論是有保底 而且保底的算法是照原PO寫的那樣
07/19 15:33, 13F
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07/19 15:33, , 14F
遞增的機率 結論就是有保底的意思
07/19 15:33, 14F
結論在這裡 ===============================================
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07/19 15:33, , 15F
先推 好猛啊
07/19 15:33, 15F
推
07/19 15:35, , 16F
講!重!點!
07/19 15:35, 16F
※ 編輯: BahasaMelayu (140.112.3.74), 07/19/2016 15:36:47
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07/19 15:38, , 17F
依我玩艦娘的經驗統計才2%的東西也會天天有過百場的人崩
07/19 15:38, 17F
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07/19 15:38, , 18F
潰，能沒人超過40次還沒保底那是奇跡
07/19 15:38, 18F
推
07/19 15:41, , 19F
喂 你才是原PO好嗎XDDDDDDDD
07/19 15:41, 19F
推
07/19 15:41, , 20F
看不懂還是推了
07/19 15:41, 20F
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07/19 15:42, , 21F
看統計數字感覺是預設機率比2/81更低，後面提升更多
07/19 15:42, 21F
推
07/19 15:42, , 22F
推個，跟爐石40包一定有一張傳說差不多意思...
07/19 15:42, 22F
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07/19 15:43, , 23F
尤其是幾乎沒有人連兩張黑金，但統計下來機率高達3%多
07/19 15:43, 23F
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07/19 15:43, , 24F
其他卡更低的機率都在連發了XD
07/19 15:43, 24F
推
07/19 15:43, , 25F
推, 雖然看不懂不過謝謝結論和跑程式XD
07/19 15:43, 25F
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07/19 15:46, , 26F
或者說不要侷限於連兩張，連續五張或十張以內黑金的次數
07/19 15:46, 26F
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07/19 15:46, , 27F
都比其他那些1% 2%的卡還低
07/19 15:46, 27F
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07/19 15:47, , 28F
^出現兩張
07/19 15:47, 28F
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07/19 15:52, , 29F
不管辣，保底只是都市傳說，這都是統計數據的正常呈現zzz
07/19 15:52, 29F
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07/19 15:52, , 30F
我先幫樓下發言
07/19 15:52, 30F
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07/19 15:55, , 31F
我連發光古希ww
07/19 15:55, 31F
推
07/19 15:56, , 32F
有保底 那就是看個人願不願意花150石買一張卡 或是繼續
07/19 15:56, 32F
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07/19 15:56, , 33F
用以小搏大的心態去抽
07/19 15:56, 33F
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07/19 15:56, , 34F
07/19 15:56, 34F
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07/19 15:56, , 35F
看起來抽超雷ww
07/19 15:56, 35F
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07/19 15:57, , 36F
150石也只是是個大概而以
07/19 15:57, 36F
推
07/19 15:58, , 37F
我最後一次看這個公式已經是一年前寫研究報告的時候了
07/19 15:58, 37F
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07/19 15:58, , 38F
嗚嗚頭好痛啊
07/19 15:58, 38F
推
07/19 15:58, , 39F
我相信機率是遞增 但遞增曲線應該不是線性
07/19 15:58, 39F
推
07/19 15:59, , 40F
花了6000 ,抽到一火一水剩100顆石頭
07/19 15:59, 40F
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07/19 15:59, , 41F
應該有保底
07/19 15:59, 41F
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07/19 16:00, , 42F
只是付出的代價很大
07/19 16:00, 42F
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07/19 16:01, , 43F
之前使魔，古希，省下來沒抽，現在一次吐出來
07/19 16:01, 43F
推
07/19 16:07, , 44F
真的是看自己要不要花那個錢
07/19 16:07, 44F
推
07/19 16:19, , 45F
直接計算版上統計機率來看，3.78%的機率中黑金，不保底的情
07/19 16:19, 45F
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07/19 16:19, , 46F
況下，一直抽到30~39抽中一張的機率是10.46%，29抽以內中的
07/19 16:19, 46F
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07/19 16:19, , 47F
機率是67.29%，40抽以後中的機率是22.25%。跟版上統計一比
07/19 16:19, 47F
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07/19 16:19, , 48F
，答案應該明顯了吧
07/19 16:19, 48F
推
07/19 16:35, , 49F
這次MH真的是賺翻了 下次一定複製這模式
07/19 16:35, 49F
推
07/19 16:39, , 50F
今天他在GOOGLE PLAY的排行榜已經衝到第4了耶 平常
07/19 16:39, 50F
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07/19 16:39, , 51F
都30上下
07/19 16:39, 51F
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07/19 16:43, , 52F
這模式真的還不錯阿 35抽 大概就很穩了 連無課都能考慮存
07/19 16:43, 52F
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07/19 16:48, , 53F
這模式每次都要掏個至少3600耶 有很好嗎
07/19 16:48, 53F
推
07/19 16:49, , 54F
我比較喜歡一般那種一次出五張，然後單日加倍的
07/19 16:49, 54F
推
07/19 17:01, , 55F
apk不到3000有190顆，有興趣入坑可考慮
07/19 17:01, 55F
推
07/19 17:02, , 56F
不是剛好3000買190顆嗎
07/19 17:02, 56F
推
07/19 17:07, , 57F
嗯嗯，我也是這樣想的!
07/19 17:07, 57F
推
07/19 17:09, , 58F
這篇正解了
07/19 17:09, 58F
推
07/19 17:16, , 59F
原來mycard價錢也調整了@@，那改用mycard比較便宜一點
07/19 17:16, 59F
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07/19 17:16, , 60F
看來明年新年中國神有可能比照這模式了？
07/19 17:16, 60F
推
07/19 17:19, , 61F
跟我昨天跑的數值差不多
07/19 17:19, 61F
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07/19 17:23, , 62F
完全沒抽~反正我光古蒼蠅沒半隻也是撐到現在 不想花3000抽1隻
07/19 17:23, 62F
推
07/19 17:25, , 63F
看推文才知道mycard也降價了，感謝分享
07/19 17:25, 63F
推
07/19 17:41, , 64F
有很多管道可買到9.x折，例如1x3的app，大概2800，190顆
07/19 17:41, 64F
推
07/19 17:56, , 65F
有沒有人連續三張妍希都同一張?已經兩張水了，怕又重
07/19 17:56, 65F
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07/19 17:56, , 66F
復，考慮要不要繼續拼
07/19 17:56, 66F
推
07/19 18:22, , 67F
我也沒有光古蒼蠅 幫哭哭
07/19 18:22, 67F
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07/19 18:31, , 68F
蒼蠅我們工會反而很多人抽到
07/19 18:31, 68F
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07/19 18:35, , 69F
3000抽一隻 算了吧
07/19 18:35, 69F
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07/19 19:19, , 70F
看不懂推
07/19 19:19, 70F
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07/19 19:22, , 71F
有一堆my card...卻不會用APK...
07/19 19:22, 71F
推
07/19 19:25, , 72F
John 我也是兩張水在掙扎要不要拼
07/19 19:25, 72F
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07/19 19:41, , 73F
皮朋怎麼常常賣萌
07/19 19:41, 73F
推
07/19 19:50, , 74F
我們家這邊 mycard 有 95 折 ㄎd
07/19 19:50, 74F
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