Boston's low-risk, high-reward strategy
http://tinyurl.com/9moq52
Economy prompts Red Sox to adapt a low-risk, high-reward contract strategy
BY DANIEL BARBARISI Journal Sports Writer
The faltering economy isn’t only evident in unemployment lines and on
televised bailout hearings. Just look at the Red Sox roster, and the signs
are there, as well.
The types of free agents the Red Sox have pursued this offseason, and the
structures and lengths of the contracts they have offered, have been strongly
dictated by the state of the economy.
Leaving their pursuit of first baseman Mark Teixeira aside, the Red Sox have
been loath to commit money without guarantees of a positive result, and they
have largely refused to sign deals longer than one year.
These free agents have also been given heavily incentivized contracts, and
most are players who are either injury risks or are otherwise undervalued.
These short-term, low-risk deals are a hallmark of general manager Theo
Epstein — similar deals once lured players such as Kevin Millar and Bill
Mueller — but this winter he has doled them out at an unprecedented rate.
Epstein said it’s a conscious effort directly tied to the state of the
economy.
“The uncertainty surrounding the economy is a factor in our strategy,”
Epstein said. “In a sense, if there’s uncertainty, it makes sense to keep
our commitments as short as possible, and as small as possible.”
In terms of guaranteed money, it’s a lot of players, with very little
commitment, for very little cash.
So far, the one-year deals include: John Smoltz at $5.5 million; Josh Bard
for $1.7 million, non-guaranteed; Rocco Baldelli for $500,000; Takashi Saito
at $1.5 million. Mark Kotsay for $1.5 million. And there’s also Tim Wakefield
’s recurring $4 million club option.
All told, including Bard, the Red Sox are on the hook for $14.2 million for
those players.
But if those players reach their incentives, that figure balloons to $40.5
million. That’s unlikely, of course, but in most offseasons, the spread
between the guaranteed money and the maximum outlay is not nearly as
dramatic.
The strategy stands in stark contrast to the rival Yankees, who spent the
winter doling out huge dollars to sign marquee free agents, including $423.5
million for Teixeira, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett alone. Of course, the
Yankees are opening a new ballpark this spring, and any baseball evaluator
would say that the Yankees scored significant talent for their money.
Epstein however, said that his strategy has given the team the kind of
financial structure that will allow it to adjust no matter which way the
economy turns.
“Compared to the other big-market teams, we have tremendous flexibility,”
said Epstein. “But at the same time, we have a lot of talent under control
for a long time, a lot of young talent.”
That young talent includes A.L. MVP Dustin Pedroia and third-place finisher
Kevin Youkilis, who both signed below-market deals this offseason to stay
with the Red Sox long-term.
Those deals were likely heavily influenced by the general free-agent market,
which was lucrative for the elite and tough on most everyone else.
Pedroia signed for six years and $40.5 million, and his contract is
back-loaded such that his next two years will cost the team $5-million total.
Youkilis signed for four years, and $41.1 million, but he has more
major-league experience than Pedroia and the team was able to buy out more of
his free-agency years.
At the same time, the Red Sox are adjusting to the downturn in other ways.
Analysts have speculated this winter that sports may finally lose its
immunity to the swings of the larger marketplace. And beyond the roster, the
Red Sox have responded in a manner that shows they may agree.
This offseason marked the first time in 14 years that the team has not raised
ticket prices, and team president Larry Lucchino said the Red Sox are
concentrating on marketing in a way they never have before.
After more than 700 straight sellouts, it may seem like gospel that the team
always fills Fenway Park — but ownership is taking nothing for granted.
“We have made a concerted effort to more aggressively market the team well,
and to more intensely focus on the expense side of the equation,” Lucchino
said.
Last weekend, for instance, the team kicked off a multi-state “road trip”
to drum up interest in general-admission tickets, which go on sale Saturday
for the 2009 season.
The event featured the standard mall appearances and memorabilia giveaways,
but for the first time, the team offered up 6,500 ticket vouchers to
attendees, which ensured that anyone who came to an event would be able to
buy a ticket in advance of the start of general ticket sales on Jan. 24.
Normally, fans are all lumped together and forced to contend with one another
the moment the ticket sales open.
Lucchino also said the team is cutting back on “small-ticket items”
internally, hoping they will add up to real savings.
“We have, in our internal deliberations, discussed the economic conditions
of the time and the impact they are likely to have on baseball as a whole,
and the Red Sox in particular,” Lucchino said. “This year is obviously
dictated to some extent by the economic times.”
Still, the fan base shows a remarkable willingness to close its eyes and
spend. Sales at the team’s Christmas at Fenway event in December were up
over 2007, and spring-training ticket sales are also up.
The sporting world as a whole is clearly not immune to the laws of economics,
but the Red Sox may be playing an entirely different ball game.
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